October 15, 2026
Here’s what was covered in episode 384:
Macro Musings — Gold bounces, but the dollar, yields and tax-loss season keep metals under pressure.
Gold and silver rebounded sharply after the latest inflation-driven selloff, with gold gaining nearly 2% and silver approaching a 4% increase on Thursday. Both metals had recovered to approximately their pre-CPI levels as the U.S. Dollar Index retreated from nearly 103 toward 102.
Nick does not believe the broader trend of rising yields and a stronger dollar has ended. September inflation accelerated to approximately 3.74%, and he expects it to remain around 3.7%–3.8% over the next month or two.
Markets currently assign roughly a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its October meeting. Even if the Fed pauses, persistent inflation could bring renewed hawkish rhetoric before the following meeting.
Gold appears trapped in a channel between approximately $4,045 and $4,175. The metal must reclaim $4,175 before Nick would view the technical picture as constructive again.
Silver’s chart looks weaker. The metal has repeatedly bounced near $54-$55 but continues wedging lower. That support must hold, or silver could fall deeper into the $40s before finding a durable bottom.
Copper remains the strongest of the three metals. It continues trading above $6 per pound despite volatility elsewhere in the commodity complex. Potential mine closures, delayed restarts and operating problems in Chile reinforce Gerardo’s longstanding argument that analysts tend to underestimate supply disruptions.
Refined copper may remain adequately supplied over the next couple of years, but the longer-term outlook still points toward serious structural deficits by 2030. That underlying strength is already visible in the better performance of copper producers and developers.
Uranium, lithium and rare-earth equities tell a very different story. Their respective ETFs are approaching or establishing new 52-week lows even though the underlying long-term demand narratives remain intact.
Nick and Gerardo expect tax-loss selling and limited liquidity to create additional pressure through the remainder of 2026. For investors with available capital and a sufficiently long time horizon, that weakness could produce some of the year’s best entry points.
Companies must continue communicating during this period. Gerardo recently told one CEO that shareholders need to understand how management is creating value through drilling, metallurgy, permitting or other technical work. Disappearing for six weeks while a stock becomes a tax-loss candidate is not acceptable, even when important work continues behind the scenes.
The New Orleans Investment Conference will provide an opportunity to evaluate companies face to face. Nick and Gerardo will both attend later this month, meet with portfolio companies and look for new opportunities. Today (October 16) is the last day to secure discount pricing.
Market Takes — Uranium, lithium and junior miners widen the gap between price and value.
The first subscriber question addressed the poor performance of American uranium companies despite stable uranium prices and improving industry fundamentals.
Nick attributes most of the weakness to capital rotating away from a sector that has lost momentum while the dollar and Treasury yields remain elevated. The uranium contracting price recently reached approximately 95–96 per pound, utilities continue extending reactor lives and technology companies are partnering directly with power producers to secure electricity for data centers.
Those developments have not prevented the URA and URNJ ETFs from falling toward 52-week lows. Weakness extends from large companies such as Cameco and Energy Fuels through developers, smaller producers and early-stage explorers.
That disconnect creates opportunity. Rick Rule frequently observes that money is made from the delta between price and value. Uranium-equity prices currently reflect little of the upside that could materialize if reactor growth, life extensions and data-center demand eventually require substantially more uranium production.
The agreements being announced today will not immediately generate electricity. Reactors and small modular reactors still require permitting, construction and fuel. Just as an executive order cannot create a mine, a power-purchase agreement cannot produce the uranium needed several years from now.
Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU)(TSX: EFR) illustrates the rerating potential. Its shares traded between approximately $18 and $25 during the past year before falling toward $10. Nick still sees significant value in the company and in several uranium positions covered by Underground Alpha that now trade 40%–50% below their published buy-under prices.
Gerardo offered Hannan Metals (TSX-V: HAN)(OTC: HANNF) as another example of how he approaches sector weakness. He owns a seven-figure position and would prefer to see the shares at $1.25 or $1.50 instead of approximately $0.65, but he is not concerned as long as management continues creating value.
Hannan is advancing permitting in Peru, drilling in Sweden and adding projects. Gerardo is considering increasing his position during the next month because the company continues moving its assets forward despite the weak market.
Another subscriber asked why Daura Gold (TSX-V: DGC)(OTC: DGCOF) began drilling in Argentina before advancing its more heavily promoted Peruvian project.
The answer is permitting. Daura is still working through the social-license and permitting processes in Peru and may not be able to begin drilling there until the first half of 2027.
Rather than leave its capital idle, management optioned the Cerro Bayo and La Flora projects from Latin Metals (TSX-V: LMS)(OTC: LMSQF). Initial drilling at Cerro Bayo produced what Nick considers a technical success, and Daura has now begun drilling La Flora for the first time.
The company can earn an 80% interest in projects offering gold, copper and silver exposure. One meaningful discovery could become a company maker while management continues working toward the Peruvian program.
Gerardo had previously avoided Daura because he did not want to finance a company that would simply wait for permits. The Argentine transaction changed his view. He invested at approximately C$0.23 per share because it provided near-term drilling catalysts without sacrificing the longer-term Peruvian opportunity.
Nick and Gerardo are both Daura shareholders. They continue to view Peru as the better target, particularly because of the mineralized trends extending from neighboring projects, but Argentina gives the company an opportunity to create value in the meantime.
A third subscriber asked whether the Carney government’s effort to attract foreign investment into Canadian critical minerals could benefit PMET Resources (TSX: PMET)(OTC: PMETF) and Q2 Metals (TSX-V: QTWO)(OTC: QUEXF).
Nick remains conflicted. Canada’s economy is growing slowly, the Canadian dollar remains weak and the TSX Venture Exchange is near its lows. Ottawa has also intervened in foreign acquisitions involving Canadian-listed resource companies, creating uncertainty for international buyers.
At the same time, the Carney government held a widely covered investment summit involving Canadian critical-minerals companies. PMET already has Volkswagen at the table, and other European automakers or battery manufacturers could eventually participate in additional transactions.
Critical Elements Lithium (TSX-V: CRE)(OTC: CRECF) presents another test. The company has a fully permitted Quebec lithium project but has not secured a financing partner. Its chairman told Nick that potential alternatives could include an Asian or Chinese transaction, although Canada’s willingness to approve such an arrangement remains uncertain.
Gerardo believes the lithium cycle matters more than the immediate political backdrop. Lithium prices have fallen approximately 25% from their 2026 highs, and he believes the sector may be approaching the fourth major bottom he has witnessed since 2016.
His group retains a substantial position in PMET Resources. He considers both PMET and Q2 Metals to have world-class assets that would be exceptionally difficult to duplicate elsewhere in North America.
Those assets could eventually attract takeover bids at substantial premiums. Gerardo also would not be surprised to see consolidation among high-quality lithium companies if combining two projects creates more value than developing them separately.
Bizarro Banter — Epstein protestor gets punched, oil traders escape scrutiny and bunting becomes contrarian.
Gerardo began with disturbing footage from a Trump rally near San Antonio.
A female protester wearing a shirt demanding the release of the Epstein files was physically attacked during a confrontation with several men. One man appeared to strike her with a closed fist, while another person wearing a “Jesus Saves” hat became involved in the altercation.
The protester was escorted from the arena while the men who assaulted her were not immediately detained. The Bexar County Sheriff’s Office subsequently asked the public for help identifying those involved.
Gerardo could not understand what opposing position the attackers believed they were defending. The woman was demanding accountability for people who sexually abused and exploited children. Regardless of anyone’s political affiliation, wealth or proximity to power, that should not be controversial.
The conversation expanded into reports surrounding a deceased alleged whistleblower who had accused Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick of financial connections to Jeffrey Epstein. Nick and Gerardo discussed the recurring pattern of people associated with the Epstein story dying before meaningful accountability occurs, while emphasizing the extraordinary number of unanswered questions surrounding Epstein’s network.
They also addressed the reported decision to terminate an investigation into suspicious oil trades made around developments in the Iran conflict. Trading volume and price patterns appeared to suggest that certain participants may have acted with advance knowledge, yet the administration is reportedly ending the inquiry.
Nick argued that political insiders almost certainly possess information about military actions and foreign-policy decisions before the public. Halting the investigation reinforces the perception that one set of rules applies to ordinary investors while another applies to politically connected people.
The same dissatisfaction extends to the midterm elections. Republicans appear to be pulling money from several competitive House races to concentrate on retaining the Senate, while independents and Hispanic voters are moving back toward Democrats.
Neither party offers a credible answer to the country’s fundamental problems. The debt continues rising, military interventions continue and voters alternate between parties without changing the broader trajectory.
The episode ended its free portion with a more entertaining lesson in contrarianism.
The original Moneyball revolution used statistical analysis to conclude that bunting was generally a poor trade because teams surrendered an out merely to advance a runner. Major League Baseball gradually abandoned the bunt, and players stopped practicing how to execute or defend it.
The Tampa Bay Rays responded by moving in the opposite direction. The team recorded 134 bunts during the 2026 season, the highest total in the majors in a decade. Its 49 bunt hits were the most since 2008, and the strategy also produced an unusually high number of runs.
Pitchers and infielders have become so unaccustomed to defending bunts that the formerly inefficient strategy has become effective again.
Tampa Bay also adopted the approach because it could not afford the power hitters employed by teams such as Los Angeles and New York. By exploiting an area every other organization had optimized out of the game, a low-budget team created an unconventional advantage.
The comparison with resource investing is straightforward. When every investor crowds into the same companies and follows the same strategy, the neglected corner of the market may offer the better opportunity. Uranium, lithium and beaten-down mining equities increasingly resemble baseball’s abandoned bunt.
Premium Portfolio Picks — Lux drills high grade while Perpetua and beaten-down producers reset the opportunity.
Gerardo’s primary premium pick was Lux Metals (TSX-V: LXM)(OTC: BBBMF), in which he owns a substantial position in both shares and warrants.
Lux reported 17.57 grams per tonne gold over 19.5 meters from the LeGrand Gold Project in Quebec’s James Bay region. The intercept came from a 40-meter stepout and provided an exceptional beginning to the company’s current drilling program.
The shares initially gained approximately 20%–25% following the result. Momentum reversed after the company issued a corporate update the following morning, but Gerardo believes the market misunderstood the announcement.
Management had discussed the potential size and cost of an expanded exploration program in an interview with The Northern Miner. Because the article was behind a paywall, the company issued a public clarification to ensure all investors had access to the same information.
Lux was not announcing an immediate financing. Management told Gerardo that the company has cash, drilling is continuing and additional assays are pending.
The program is designed to verify historical drilling, refine the geological model and conduct geophysical work capable of identifying additional targets. Previous operators completed approximately 45,000 meters of drilling, but only about two kilometers of a potentially prospective 40-kilometer trend have been explored.
Historical operators also did not consistently assay for copper. Lux is testing the newly reported gold intercept for copper, creating the possibility of an additional source of value if those assays return meaningful grades.
Management intends to work toward a maiden mineral-resource estimate in 2027. The CEO told Gerardo that the company would not pursue that process unless it believed it could confidently establish more than one million ounces of gold.
That is management’s objective, not an existing resource. Lux must still verify the historical work, complete additional drilling and demonstrate sufficient continuity before publishing a compliant estimate.
The company’s market capitalization was approximately C$15-C$18 million during the recording. Gerardo believes that valuation could change quickly if Lux establishes a million-ounce foundation, demonstrates substantial exploration upside and adds meaningful copper grades.
He compared the opportunity with Great Bear Resources. Several companies had previously worked the Dixie Project, but Chris Taylor’s team applied a new geological interpretation and ultimately revealed considerably more value.
Lux remains early stage, speculative and dependent on additional assays. Nevertheless, 17.57 grams per tonne gold over 19.5 meters is exactly the type of result Gerardo wants to see at the beginning of a drill program.
For investors seeking a larger, more liquid and substantially derisked alternative, Gerardo highlighted Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA)(TSX: PPTA).
Perpetua’s Stibnite Project is fully permitted, financed and moving into construction. It combines a large gold reserve with strategic antimony exposure, while continuing exploration could add additional ounces.
Gerardo believes Stibnite could ultimately contain 10 million–15 million ounces of gold. The company has fallen toward 52-week lows despite gold trading near $4,000, leaving the shares priced as though the metal were much lower.
Perpetua remains in Gerardo’s portfolio. He is surprised the company has not already been acquired and believes any eventual transaction would occur at a substantially higher valuation.
Nick expects additional buying opportunities across the sector during the next several weeks as tax-loss selling continues. Investors seeking a trade through the end of the year and into early 2027 can screen major producers for companies that have underperformed the GDX and GDXJ despite maintaining sound or improving fundamentals.
Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC)(TSX: K) repeatedly appeared in one of Nick’s recent value screens. He does not own or formally recommend the company, but it offers an example of a large producer capable of rebounding when pressure lifts from the sector.
OceanaGold (NYSE: OGC)(TSX: OGC) presents a similar setup. Nick bought it personally during the July weakness and later sold the position. The latest pullback resembles the summer doldrums that preceded the resource-sector rally into August and September.
The immediate trend remains difficult, and prices could fall further before tax-loss season ends. The opportunity lies in identifying companies that continue adding fundamental value while their share prices are temporarily moving in the opposite direction.
Nick will be away next week, and Gerardo will host a special episode with veteran resource investor Jeff Phillips. They plan to discuss contrarian investing, specific resource opportunities and Geomorphic AI.
Nick and Gerardo both invested in Geomorphic AI’s initial financing, and Nick serves as an adviser to the company. They believe its approach to geological data analysis and project generation could become an important part of the resource industry.
Subscribers should send in any questions they would like Gerardo to ask Jeff during next week’s episode.
October 15, 2026
Here’s what was covered in episode 384:
Macro Musings — Gold bounces, but the dollar, yields and tax-loss season keep metals under pressure.
Gold and silver rebounded sharply after the latest inflation-driven selloff, with gold gaining nearly 2% and silver approaching a 4% increase on Thursday. Both metals had recovered to approximately their pre-CPI levels as the U.S. Dollar Index retreated from nearly 103 toward 102.
Nick does not believe the broader trend of rising yields and a stronger dollar has ended. September inflation accelerated to approximately 3.74%, and he expects it to remain around 3.7%–3.8% over the next month or two.
Markets currently assign roughly a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its October meeting. Even if the Fed pauses, persistent inflation could bring renewed hawkish rhetoric before the following meeting.
Gold appears trapped in a channel between approximately $4,045 and $4,175. The metal must reclaim $4,175 before Nick would view the technical picture as constructive again.
Silver’s chart looks weaker. The metal has repeatedly bounced near $54-$55 but continues wedging lower. That support must hold, or silver could fall deeper into the $40s before finding a durable bottom.
Copper remains the strongest of the three metals. It continues trading above $6 per pound despite volatility elsewhere in the commodity complex. Potential mine closures, delayed restarts and operating problems in Chile reinforce Gerardo’s longstanding argument that analysts tend to underestimate supply disruptions.
Refined copper may remain adequately supplied over the next couple of years, but the longer-term outlook still points toward serious structural deficits by 2030. That underlying strength is already visible in the better performance of copper producers and developers.
Uranium, lithium and rare-earth equities tell a very different story. Their respective ETFs are approaching or establishing new 52-week lows even though the underlying long-term demand narratives remain intact.
Nick and Gerardo expect tax-loss selling and limited liquidity to create additional pressure through the remainder of 2026. For investors with available capital and a sufficiently long time horizon, that weakness could produce some of the year’s best entry points.
Companies must continue communicating during this period. Gerardo recently told one CEO that shareholders need to understand how management is creating value through drilling, metallurgy, permitting or other technical work. Disappearing for six weeks while a stock becomes a tax-loss candidate is not acceptable, even when important work continues behind the scenes.
The New Orleans Investment Conference will provide an opportunity to evaluate companies face to face. Nick and Gerardo will both attend later this month, meet with portfolio companies and look for new opportunities. Today (October 16) is the last day to secure discount pricing.
Market Takes — Uranium, lithium and junior miners widen the gap between price and value.
The first subscriber question addressed the poor performance of American uranium companies despite stable uranium prices and improving industry fundamentals.
Nick attributes most of the weakness to capital rotating away from a sector that has lost momentum while the dollar and Treasury yields remain elevated. The uranium contracting price recently reached approximately 95–96 per pound, utilities continue extending reactor lives and technology companies are partnering directly with power producers to secure electricity for data centers.
Those developments have not prevented the URA and URNJ ETFs from falling toward 52-week lows. Weakness extends from large companies such as Cameco and Energy Fuels through developers, smaller producers and early-stage explorers.
That disconnect creates opportunity. Rick Rule frequently observes that money is made from the delta between price and value. Uranium-equity prices currently reflect little of the upside that could materialize if reactor growth, life extensions and data-center demand eventually require substantially more uranium production.
The agreements being announced today will not immediately generate electricity. Reactors and small modular reactors still require permitting, construction and fuel. Just as an executive order cannot create a mine, a power-purchase agreement cannot produce the uranium needed several years from now.
Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU)(TSX: EFR) illustrates the rerating potential. Its shares traded between approximately $18 and $25 during the past year before falling toward $10. Nick still sees significant value in the company and in several uranium positions covered by Underground Alpha that now trade 40%–50% below their published buy-under prices.
Gerardo offered Hannan Metals (TSX-V: HAN)(OTC: HANNF) as another example of how he approaches sector weakness. He owns a seven-figure position and would prefer to see the shares at $1.25 or $1.50 instead of approximately $0.65, but he is not concerned as long as management continues creating value.
Hannan is advancing permitting in Peru, drilling in Sweden and adding projects. Gerardo is considering increasing his position during the next month because the company continues moving its assets forward despite the weak market.
Another subscriber asked why Daura Gold (TSX-V: DGC)(OTC: DGCOF) began drilling in Argentina before advancing its more heavily promoted Peruvian project.
The answer is permitting. Daura is still working through the social-license and permitting processes in Peru and may not be able to begin drilling there until the first half of 2027.
Rather than leave its capital idle, management optioned the Cerro Bayo and La Flora projects from Latin Metals (TSX-V: LMS)(OTC: LMSQF). Initial drilling at Cerro Bayo produced what Nick considers a technical success, and Daura has now begun drilling La Flora for the first time.
The company can earn an 80% interest in projects offering gold, copper and silver exposure. One meaningful discovery could become a company maker while management continues working toward the Peruvian program.
Gerardo had previously avoided Daura because he did not want to finance a company that would simply wait for permits. The Argentine transaction changed his view. He invested at approximately C$0.23 per share because it provided near-term drilling catalysts without sacrificing the longer-term Peruvian opportunity.
Nick and Gerardo are both Daura shareholders. They continue to view Peru as the better target, particularly because of the mineralized trends extending from neighboring projects, but Argentina gives the company an opportunity to create value in the meantime.
A third subscriber asked whether the Carney government’s effort to attract foreign investment into Canadian critical minerals could benefit PMET Resources (TSX: PMET)(OTC: PMETF) and Q2 Metals (TSX-V: QTWO)(OTC: QUEXF).
Nick remains conflicted. Canada’s economy is growing slowly, the Canadian dollar remains weak and the TSX Venture Exchange is near its lows. Ottawa has also intervened in foreign acquisitions involving Canadian-listed resource companies, creating uncertainty for international buyers.
At the same time, the Carney government held a widely covered investment summit involving Canadian critical-minerals companies. PMET already has Volkswagen at the table, and other European automakers or battery manufacturers could eventually participate in additional transactions.
Critical Elements Lithium (TSX-V: CRE)(OTC: CRECF) presents another test. The company has a fully permitted Quebec lithium project but has not secured a financing partner. Its chairman told Nick that potential alternatives could include an Asian or Chinese transaction, although Canada’s willingness to approve such an arrangement remains uncertain.
Gerardo believes the lithium cycle matters more than the immediate political backdrop. Lithium prices have fallen approximately 25% from their 2026 highs, and he believes the sector may be approaching the fourth major bottom he has witnessed since 2016.
His group retains a substantial position in PMET Resources. He considers both PMET and Q2 Metals to have world-class assets that would be exceptionally difficult to duplicate elsewhere in North America.
Those assets could eventually attract takeover bids at substantial premiums. Gerardo also would not be surprised to see consolidation among high-quality lithium companies if combining two projects creates more value than developing them separately.
Bizarro Banter — Epstein protestor gets punched, oil traders escape scrutiny and bunting becomes contrarian.
Gerardo began with disturbing footage from a Trump rally near San Antonio.
A female protester wearing a shirt demanding the release of the Epstein files was physically attacked during a confrontation with several men. One man appeared to strike her with a closed fist, while another person wearing a “Jesus Saves” hat became involved in the altercation.
The protester was escorted from the arena while the men who assaulted her were not immediately detained. The Bexar County Sheriff’s Office subsequently asked the public for help identifying those involved.
Gerardo could not understand what opposing position the attackers believed they were defending. The woman was demanding accountability for people who sexually abused and exploited children. Regardless of anyone’s political affiliation, wealth or proximity to power, that should not be controversial.
The conversation expanded into reports surrounding a deceased alleged whistleblower who had accused Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick of financial connections to Jeffrey Epstein. Nick and Gerardo discussed the recurring pattern of people associated with the Epstein story dying before meaningful accountability occurs, while emphasizing the extraordinary number of unanswered questions surrounding Epstein’s network.
They also addressed the reported decision to terminate an investigation into suspicious oil trades made around developments in the Iran conflict. Trading volume and price patterns appeared to suggest that certain participants may have acted with advance knowledge, yet the administration is reportedly ending the inquiry.
Nick argued that political insiders almost certainly possess information about military actions and foreign-policy decisions before the public. Halting the investigation reinforces the perception that one set of rules applies to ordinary investors while another applies to politically connected people.
The same dissatisfaction extends to the midterm elections. Republicans appear to be pulling money from several competitive House races to concentrate on retaining the Senate, while independents and Hispanic voters are moving back toward Democrats.
Neither party offers a credible answer to the country’s fundamental problems. The debt continues rising, military interventions continue and voters alternate between parties without changing the broader trajectory.
The episode ended its free portion with a more entertaining lesson in contrarianism.
The original Moneyball revolution used statistical analysis to conclude that bunting was generally a poor trade because teams surrendered an out merely to advance a runner. Major League Baseball gradually abandoned the bunt, and players stopped practicing how to execute or defend it.
The Tampa Bay Rays responded by moving in the opposite direction. The team recorded 134 bunts during the 2026 season, the highest total in the majors in a decade. Its 49 bunt hits were the most since 2008, and the strategy also produced an unusually high number of runs.
Pitchers and infielders have become so unaccustomed to defending bunts that the formerly inefficient strategy has become effective again.
Tampa Bay also adopted the approach because it could not afford the power hitters employed by teams such as Los Angeles and New York. By exploiting an area every other organization had optimized out of the game, a low-budget team created an unconventional advantage.
The comparison with resource investing is straightforward. When every investor crowds into the same companies and follows the same strategy, the neglected corner of the market may offer the better opportunity. Uranium, lithium and beaten-down mining equities increasingly resemble baseball’s abandoned bunt.
Premium Portfolio Picks — Lux drills high grade while Perpetua and beaten-down producers reset the opportunity.
Gerardo’s primary premium pick was Lux Metals (TSX-V: LXM)(OTC: BBBMF), in which he owns a substantial position in both shares and warrants.
Lux reported 17.57 grams per tonne gold over 19.5 meters from the LeGrand Gold Project in Quebec’s James Bay region. The intercept came from a 40-meter stepout and provided an exceptional beginning to the company’s current drilling program.
The shares initially gained approximately 20%–25% following the result. Momentum reversed after the company issued a corporate update the following morning, but Gerardo believes the market misunderstood the announcement.
Management had discussed the potential size and cost of an expanded exploration program in an interview with The Northern Miner. Because the article was behind a paywall, the company issued a public clarification to ensure all investors had access to the same information.
Lux was not announcing an immediate financing. Management told Gerardo that the company has cash, drilling is continuing and additional assays are pending.
The program is designed to verify historical drilling, refine the geological model and conduct geophysical work capable of identifying additional targets. Previous operators completed approximately 45,000 meters of drilling, but only about two kilometers of a potentially prospective 40-kilometer trend have been explored.
Historical operators also did not consistently assay for copper. Lux is testing the newly reported gold intercept for copper, creating the possibility of an additional source of value if those assays return meaningful grades.
Management intends to work toward a maiden mineral-resource estimate in 2027. The CEO told Gerardo that the company would not pursue that process unless it believed it could confidently establish more than one million ounces of gold.
That is management’s objective, not an existing resource. Lux must still verify the historical work, complete additional drilling and demonstrate sufficient continuity before publishing a compliant estimate.
The company’s market capitalization was approximately C$15-C$18 million during the recording. Gerardo believes that valuation could change quickly if Lux establishes a million-ounce foundation, demonstrates substantial exploration upside and adds meaningful copper grades.
He compared the opportunity with Great Bear Resources. Several companies had previously worked the Dixie Project, but Chris Taylor’s team applied a new geological interpretation and ultimately revealed considerably more value.
Lux remains early stage, speculative and dependent on additional assays. Nevertheless, 17.57 grams per tonne gold over 19.5 meters is exactly the type of result Gerardo wants to see at the beginning of a drill program.
For investors seeking a larger, more liquid and substantially derisked alternative, Gerardo highlighted Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA)(TSX: PPTA).
Perpetua’s Stibnite Project is fully permitted, financed and moving into construction. It combines a large gold reserve with strategic antimony exposure, while continuing exploration could add additional ounces.
Gerardo believes Stibnite could ultimately contain 10 million–15 million ounces of gold. The company has fallen toward 52-week lows despite gold trading near $4,000, leaving the shares priced as though the metal were much lower.
Perpetua remains in Gerardo’s portfolio. He is surprised the company has not already been acquired and believes any eventual transaction would occur at a substantially higher valuation.
Nick expects additional buying opportunities across the sector during the next several weeks as tax-loss selling continues. Investors seeking a trade through the end of the year and into early 2027 can screen major producers for companies that have underperformed the GDX and GDXJ despite maintaining sound or improving fundamentals.
Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC)(TSX: K) repeatedly appeared in one of Nick’s recent value screens. He does not own or formally recommend the company, but it offers an example of a large producer capable of rebounding when pressure lifts from the sector.
OceanaGold (NYSE: OGC)(TSX: OGC) presents a similar setup. Nick bought it personally during the July weakness and later sold the position. The latest pullback resembles the summer doldrums that preceded the resource-sector rally into August and September.
The immediate trend remains difficult, and prices could fall further before tax-loss season ends. The opportunity lies in identifying companies that continue adding fundamental value while their share prices are temporarily moving in the opposite direction.
Nick will be away next week, and Gerardo will host a special episode with veteran resource investor Jeff Phillips. They plan to discuss contrarian investing, specific resource opportunities and Geomorphic AI.
Nick and Gerardo both invested in Geomorphic AI’s initial financing, and Nick serves as an adviser to the company. They believe its approach to geological data analysis and project generation could become an important part of the resource industry.
Subscribers should send in any questions they would like Gerardo to ask Jeff during next week’s episode.
October 15, 2026
Here’s what was covered in episode 384:
Macro Musings — Gold bounces, but the dollar, yields and tax-loss season keep metals under pressure.
Gold and silver rebounded sharply after the latest inflation-driven selloff, with gold gaining nearly 2% and silver approaching a 4% increase on Thursday. Both metals had recovered to approximately their pre-CPI levels as the U.S. Dollar Index retreated from nearly 103 toward 102.
Nick does not believe the broader trend of rising yields and a stronger dollar has ended. September inflation accelerated to approximately 3.74%, and he expects it to remain around 3.7%–3.8% over the next month or two.
Markets currently assign roughly a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its October meeting. Even if the Fed pauses, persistent inflation could bring renewed hawkish rhetoric before the following meeting.
Gold appears trapped in a channel between approximately $4,045 and $4,175. The metal must reclaim $4,175 before Nick would view the technical picture as constructive again.
Silver’s chart looks weaker. The metal has repeatedly bounced near $54-$55 but continues wedging lower. That support must hold, or silver could fall deeper into the $40s before finding a durable bottom.
Copper remains the strongest of the three metals. It continues trading above $6 per pound despite volatility elsewhere in the commodity complex. Potential mine closures, delayed restarts and operating problems in Chile reinforce Gerardo’s longstanding argument that analysts tend to underestimate supply disruptions.
Refined copper may remain adequately supplied over the next couple of years, but the longer-term outlook still points toward serious structural deficits by 2030. That underlying strength is already visible in the better performance of copper producers and developers.
Uranium, lithium and rare-earth equities tell a very different story. Their respective ETFs are approaching or establishing new 52-week lows even though the underlying long-term demand narratives remain intact.
Nick and Gerardo expect tax-loss selling and limited liquidity to create additional pressure through the remainder of 2026. For investors with available capital and a sufficiently long time horizon, that weakness could produce some of the year’s best entry points.
Companies must continue communicating during this period. Gerardo recently told one CEO that shareholders need to understand how management is creating value through drilling, metallurgy, permitting or other technical work. Disappearing for six weeks while a stock becomes a tax-loss candidate is not acceptable, even when important work continues behind the scenes.
The New Orleans Investment Conference will provide an opportunity to evaluate companies face to face. Nick and Gerardo will both attend later this month, meet with portfolio companies and look for new opportunities. Today (October 16) is the last day to secure discount pricing.
Market Takes — Uranium, lithium and junior miners widen the gap between price and value.
The first subscriber question addressed the poor performance of American uranium companies despite stable uranium prices and improving industry fundamentals.
Nick attributes most of the weakness to capital rotating away from a sector that has lost momentum while the dollar and Treasury yields remain elevated. The uranium contracting price recently reached approximately 95–96 per pound, utilities continue extending reactor lives and technology companies are partnering directly with power producers to secure electricity for data centers.
Those developments have not prevented the URA and URNJ ETFs from falling toward 52-week lows. Weakness extends from large companies such as Cameco and Energy Fuels through developers, smaller producers and early-stage explorers.
That disconnect creates opportunity. Rick Rule frequently observes that money is made from the delta between price and value. Uranium-equity prices currently reflect little of the upside that could materialize if reactor growth, life extensions and data-center demand eventually require substantially more uranium production.
The agreements being announced today will not immediately generate electricity. Reactors and small modular reactors still require permitting, construction and fuel. Just as an executive order cannot create a mine, a power-purchase agreement cannot produce the uranium needed several years from now.
Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU)(TSX: EFR) illustrates the rerating potential. Its shares traded between approximately $18 and $25 during the past year before falling toward $10. Nick still sees significant value in the company and in several uranium positions covered by Underground Alpha that now trade 40%–50% below their published buy-under prices.
Gerardo offered Hannan Metals (TSX-V: HAN)(OTC: HANNF) as another example of how he approaches sector weakness. He owns a seven-figure position and would prefer to see the shares at $1.25 or $1.50 instead of approximately $0.65, but he is not concerned as long as management continues creating value.
Hannan is advancing permitting in Peru, drilling in Sweden and adding projects. Gerardo is considering increasing his position during the next month because the company continues moving its assets forward despite the weak market.
Another subscriber asked why Daura Gold (TSX-V: DGC)(OTC: DGCOF) began drilling in Argentina before advancing its more heavily promoted Peruvian project.
The answer is permitting. Daura is still working through the social-license and permitting processes in Peru and may not be able to begin drilling there until the first half of 2027.
Rather than leave its capital idle, management optioned the Cerro Bayo and La Flora projects from Latin Metals (TSX-V: LMS)(OTC: LMSQF). Initial drilling at Cerro Bayo produced what Nick considers a technical success, and Daura has now begun drilling La Flora for the first time.
The company can earn an 80% interest in projects offering gold, copper and silver exposure. One meaningful discovery could become a company maker while management continues working toward the Peruvian program.
Gerardo had previously avoided Daura because he did not want to finance a company that would simply wait for permits. The Argentine transaction changed his view. He invested at approximately C$0.23 per share because it provided near-term drilling catalysts without sacrificing the longer-term Peruvian opportunity.
Nick and Gerardo are both Daura shareholders. They continue to view Peru as the better target, particularly because of the mineralized trends extending from neighboring projects, but Argentina gives the company an opportunity to create value in the meantime.
A third subscriber asked whether the Carney government’s effort to attract foreign investment into Canadian critical minerals could benefit PMET Resources (TSX: PMET)(OTC: PMETF) and Q2 Metals (TSX-V: QTWO)(OTC: QUEXF).
Nick remains conflicted. Canada’s economy is growing slowly, the Canadian dollar remains weak and the TSX Venture Exchange is near its lows. Ottawa has also intervened in foreign acquisitions involving Canadian-listed resource companies, creating uncertainty for international buyers.
At the same time, the Carney government held a widely covered investment summit involving Canadian critical-minerals companies. PMET already has Volkswagen at the table, and other European automakers or battery manufacturers could eventually participate in additional transactions.
Critical Elements Lithium (TSX-V: CRE)(OTC: CRECF) presents another test. The company has a fully permitted Quebec lithium project but has not secured a financing partner. Its chairman told Nick that potential alternatives could include an Asian or Chinese transaction, although Canada’s willingness to approve such an arrangement remains uncertain.
Gerardo believes the lithium cycle matters more than the immediate political backdrop. Lithium prices have fallen approximately 25% from their 2026 highs, and he believes the sector may be approaching the fourth major bottom he has witnessed since 2016.
His group retains a substantial position in PMET Resources. He considers both PMET and Q2 Metals to have world-class assets that would be exceptionally difficult to duplicate elsewhere in North America.
Those assets could eventually attract takeover bids at substantial premiums. Gerardo also would not be surprised to see consolidation among high-quality lithium companies if combining two projects creates more value than developing them separately.
Bizarro Banter — Epstein protestor gets punched, oil traders escape scrutiny and bunting becomes contrarian.
Gerardo began with disturbing footage from a Trump rally near San Antonio.
A female protester wearing a shirt demanding the release of the Epstein files was physically attacked during a confrontation with several men. One man appeared to strike her with a closed fist, while another person wearing a “Jesus Saves” hat became involved in the altercation.
The protester was escorted from the arena while the men who assaulted her were not immediately detained. The Bexar County Sheriff’s Office subsequently asked the public for help identifying those involved.
Gerardo could not understand what opposing position the attackers believed they were defending. The woman was demanding accountability for people who sexually abused and exploited children. Regardless of anyone’s political affiliation, wealth or proximity to power, that should not be controversial.
The conversation expanded into reports surrounding a deceased alleged whistleblower who had accused Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick of financial connections to Jeffrey Epstein. Nick and Gerardo discussed the recurring pattern of people associated with the Epstein story dying before meaningful accountability occurs, while emphasizing the extraordinary number of unanswered questions surrounding Epstein’s network.
They also addressed the reported decision to terminate an investigation into suspicious oil trades made around developments in the Iran conflict. Trading volume and price patterns appeared to suggest that certain participants may have acted with advance knowledge, yet the administration is reportedly ending the inquiry.
Nick argued that political insiders almost certainly possess information about military actions and foreign-policy decisions before the public. Halting the investigation reinforces the perception that one set of rules applies to ordinary investors while another applies to politically connected people.
The same dissatisfaction extends to the midterm elections. Republicans appear to be pulling money from several competitive House races to concentrate on retaining the Senate, while independents and Hispanic voters are moving back toward Democrats.
Neither party offers a credible answer to the country’s fundamental problems. The debt continues rising, military interventions continue and voters alternate between parties without changing the broader trajectory.
The episode ended its free portion with a more entertaining lesson in contrarianism.
The original Moneyball revolution used statistical analysis to conclude that bunting was generally a poor trade because teams surrendered an out merely to advance a runner. Major League Baseball gradually abandoned the bunt, and players stopped practicing how to execute or defend it.
The Tampa Bay Rays responded by moving in the opposite direction. The team recorded 134 bunts during the 2026 season, the highest total in the majors in a decade. Its 49 bunt hits were the most since 2008, and the strategy also produced an unusually high number of runs.
Pitchers and infielders have become so unaccustomed to defending bunts that the formerly inefficient strategy has become effective again.
Tampa Bay also adopted the approach because it could not afford the power hitters employed by teams such as Los Angeles and New York. By exploiting an area every other organization had optimized out of the game, a low-budget team created an unconventional advantage.
The comparison with resource investing is straightforward. When every investor crowds into the same companies and follows the same strategy, the neglected corner of the market may offer the better opportunity. Uranium, lithium and beaten-down mining equities increasingly resemble baseball’s abandoned bunt.
Premium Portfolio Picks — Lux drills high grade while Perpetua and beaten-down producers reset the opportunity.
Gerardo’s primary premium pick was Lux Metals (TSX-V: LXM)(OTC: BBBMF), in which he owns a substantial position in both shares and warrants.
Lux reported 17.57 grams per tonne gold over 19.5 meters from the LeGrand Gold Project in Quebec’s James Bay region. The intercept came from a 40-meter stepout and provided an exceptional beginning to the company’s current drilling program.
The shares initially gained approximately 20%–25% following the result. Momentum reversed after the company issued a corporate update the following morning, but Gerardo believes the market misunderstood the announcement.
Management had discussed the potential size and cost of an expanded exploration program in an interview with The Northern Miner. Because the article was behind a paywall, the company issued a public clarification to ensure all investors had access to the same information.
Lux was not announcing an immediate financing. Management told Gerardo that the company has cash, drilling is continuing and additional assays are pending.
The program is designed to verify historical drilling, refine the geological model and conduct geophysical work capable of identifying additional targets. Previous operators completed approximately 45,000 meters of drilling, but only about two kilometers of a potentially prospective 40-kilometer trend have been explored.
Historical operators also did not consistently assay for copper. Lux is testing the newly reported gold intercept for copper, creating the possibility of an additional source of value if those assays return meaningful grades.
Management intends to work toward a maiden mineral-resource estimate in 2027. The CEO told Gerardo that the company would not pursue that process unless it believed it could confidently establish more than one million ounces of gold.
That is management’s objective, not an existing resource. Lux must still verify the historical work, complete additional drilling and demonstrate sufficient continuity before publishing a compliant estimate.
The company’s market capitalization was approximately C$15-C$18 million during the recording. Gerardo believes that valuation could change quickly if Lux establishes a million-ounce foundation, demonstrates substantial exploration upside and adds meaningful copper grades.
He compared the opportunity with Great Bear Resources. Several companies had previously worked the Dixie Project, but Chris Taylor’s team applied a new geological interpretation and ultimately revealed considerably more value.
Lux remains early stage, speculative and dependent on additional assays. Nevertheless, 17.57 grams per tonne gold over 19.5 meters is exactly the type of result Gerardo wants to see at the beginning of a drill program.
For investors seeking a larger, more liquid and substantially derisked alternative, Gerardo highlighted Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA)(TSX: PPTA).
Perpetua’s Stibnite Project is fully permitted, financed and moving into construction. It combines a large gold reserve with strategic antimony exposure, while continuing exploration could add additional ounces.
Gerardo believes Stibnite could ultimately contain 10 million–15 million ounces of gold. The company has fallen toward 52-week lows despite gold trading near $4,000, leaving the shares priced as though the metal were much lower.
Perpetua remains in Gerardo’s portfolio. He is surprised the company has not already been acquired and believes any eventual transaction would occur at a substantially higher valuation.
Nick expects additional buying opportunities across the sector during the next several weeks as tax-loss selling continues. Investors seeking a trade through the end of the year and into early 2027 can screen major producers for companies that have underperformed the GDX and GDXJ despite maintaining sound or improving fundamentals.
Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC)(TSX: K) repeatedly appeared in one of Nick’s recent value screens. He does not own or formally recommend the company, but it offers an example of a large producer capable of rebounding when pressure lifts from the sector.
OceanaGold (NYSE: OGC)(TSX: OGC) presents a similar setup. Nick bought it personally during the July weakness and later sold the position. The latest pullback resembles the summer doldrums that preceded the resource-sector rally into August and September.
The immediate trend remains difficult, and prices could fall further before tax-loss season ends. The opportunity lies in identifying companies that continue adding fundamental value while their share prices are temporarily moving in the opposite direction.
Nick will be away next week, and Gerardo will host a special episode with veteran resource investor Jeff Phillips. They plan to discuss contrarian investing, specific resource opportunities and Geomorphic AI.
Nick and Gerardo both invested in Geomorphic AI’s initial financing, and Nick serves as an adviser to the company. They believe its approach to geological data analysis and project generation could become an important part of the resource industry.
Subscribers should send in any questions they would like Gerardo to ask Jeff during next week’s episode.