October 08, 2026
Here’s what was covered in episode 383:
Macro Musings — China plays the long game while gold probes its new $4,000 floor.
Gerardo believes $4,000 has become gold’s new floor. The metal weakened while China was closed for a weeklong holiday, then firmed above $4,100 after Chinese markets reopened.
That timing matters because China continues to accumulate gold while tightening its grip on the world’s critical-material supply chains. Gerardo noted that the country has added to its official gold reserves for 22 or 23 consecutive months while restricting exports of strategic metals and preserving domestic supplies of diesel and natural gas.
Nick argued that China’s advantage was built over decades. State-owned companies established positions throughout Africa and Latin America, while China developed the refining and processing infrastructure that now controls 80%–90% of the supply chain for certain strategic materials.
The West finally recognizes the problem. Governments have passed legislation, reduced permitting barriers and established financing programs for domestic mining and processing. Still, a signature on an executive order does not put ore into a mill. New mines can require three, five or 10 years before producing material.
Gold remains short-term bearish after breaking support near $4,240 and $4,175, but it appears to be probing for a bottom above $4,000. Silver looks weaker below $60. Copper remains the strongest of the three metals and continues trading near historically high levels.
Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar are creating the immediate pressure. The DXY has broken above 102, while 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are approaching levels not seen in roughly 24 years. The Federal Reserve has also returned to raising rates, producing a formidable double headwind for precious metals and mining equities.
Nick expects those conditions to soften over the next several months. Third-quarter GDP could register between 3% and 4% when released on October 29, but higher oil prices should slow growth during the fourth quarter and first quarter. Inflation should also decelerate as year-over-year oil comparisons become more difficult.
Slower growth and disinflation would give the Fed room to become less hawkish. The market had priced in four additional rate hikes over the coming year but has already reduced that expectation to three. A softer dollar and lower yields would provide the conditions gold and silver need to resume their longer-term advances.
The global debt problem supplies the more durable bullish case. Large amounts of debt must be refinanced during the next several quarters, while countries including France face their own fiscal strains. Gerardo expects those pressures to force Kevin Warsh toward a more dovish position regardless of the administration’s public demands for lower rates.
Market Takes — The S&P reaches records on disappearing breadth while AI pushes capital spending past $1 trillion.
The S&P 500 reached another record high even though only one of its 11 sectors produced a positive return over the preceding month.
That contradiction reflects the index’s extreme concentration. A handful of hyperscalers and technology companies, including Apple, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft, continue lifting the capitalization-weighted index while real estate, industrials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and most other sectors decline.
Earlier in the year, market participation broadened into energy, healthcare and other sectors. That breadth has since disappeared. Depending on the trading day, five to 10 companies can account for approximately 40% of the S&P 500’s movement.
Artificial intelligence remains the dominant source of capital spending and investor enthusiasm. Previous estimates placed hyperscaler spending around $600 billion–$700 billion, but a recent Goldman Sachs report suggested AI-related capital expenditures could exceed $1 trillion in 2026.
Goldman compared the current investment cycle with earlier technological revolutions involving the telephone and the internet and concluded that spending has not yet become historically excessive on a relative basis. Gerardo sees that additional infrastructure demand strengthening an already bullish copper outlook.
Copper traded near $6.90 at the end of September, pulled back and then briefly reached approximately $6.76 during the week. Nick remains bullish across the short, medium and long term because existing production cannot satisfy projected demand.
Gerardo believes prices of $12–$14 per pound are possible over the next several years. If AI and data-center economics develop as promised, technology companies will care more about securing copper and uranium than minimizing what they pay for either commodity.
Aldebaran Resources (TSX-V: ALDE)(OTC: ADBRF) offered an immediate example of how the market can reward a major copper result. The company reported an approximately 1.7-kilometer intercept grading better than 0.4% copper equivalent, extending far beyond the existing pit shell at Altar.
Shares climbed from approximately $2.68 before the announcement to $3.35 on the news and then reached $3.59 the following day. A resource update is expected during the next several months.
Nick owns Aldebaran and recommends it in Underground Alpha. Gerardo interviewed CEO John Black after the result and believes the company could eventually be acquired at a substantial premium. Black previously monetized Antares and has discussed how Aldebaran once traded below $0.01 per attributable pound of copper, compared with approximately $0.07 per pound received in the Antares transaction.
Even an exceptional drill hole does nothing to solve the immediate copper shortage. Aldebaran still requires an updated resource, engineering studies, financing, permitting and construction before it can produce metal. The result illustrates both the scale of the opportunity and the time required to turn discoveries into supply.
Bizarro Banter — Universal high income meets artificial surveillance and ballot-box theater.
Gerardo watched an interview with a former Anthropic employee who warned about autonomous AI agents, labor displacement and the possibility of providing everyone with a “universal high income” once artificial intelligence and robotics become sufficiently productive.
The proposal raises a deeper question. Would people accept financial security if the tradeoff were surrendering their agency, work and sense of purpose to a handful of companies controlling the technology?
Gerardo would not. He finds meaning in building a business, evaluating investments and helping subscribers turn $1 into $2 and potentially $10. However, he suspects most voters would choose guaranteed income if given the opportunity.
Nick sees inflation as the most immediate problem with that promise. Giving everyone a high income does not create more goods, housing or services. It merely gives everyone more currency with which to compete for the same supply. Homebuyer subsidies increase home prices, stimulus checks contributed to inflation and a universal high income could eventually make a loaf of bread cost $100.
He compared AI with the automation of tollbooths. Eliminating toll collectors removed certain jobs, but faster transportation created economic value elsewhere. Geomorphic AI, in which Nick and Gerardo are shareholders, offers a mining-sector example. The platform accelerates project generation and analysis, but successful targets still require geologists, drillers and development teams.
The technology also creates obvious problems. Job applicants use AI to prepare résumés, employers use AI to screen them and qualified people can pass through the entire process without ever speaking to another person.
Gerardo remains more concerned about who controls the technology and how much power they will accumulate. Nick views today’s AI leaders as the latest version of the railroad and oil barons: powerful, self-interested and potentially dangerous, but also capable of building infrastructure that creates new industries.
Their debate arrived alongside reports of a Florida woman arrested after Claude allegedly flagged a mass-shooting threat written in her private AI diary. Another man reportedly required rescue from a cliff after relying on AI to plan his climbing route. The lesson was straightforward: be careful what you tell artificial intelligence, and do not assume it knows what it is doing.
Nick then turned to three Washington ballot initiatives involving the state income tax, parental rights in schools and eligibility for girls’ and women’s sports. He plans to vote to repeal the income tax, increase parental notification requirements and reserve female sports for biological girls and women.
His larger objection concerned the official arguments presented to voters. Opponents of repealing the income tax warn that schools will lose funding, even though the tax does not take effect until 2028 and its proceeds are currently destined for the general fund rather than specifically for education.
State officials also claim voters can address future expansion of the tax at the ballot box. Nick finds that promise difficult to accept after Washington voters approved freedom of energy choice, only to have the measure overturned on technical grounds.
The same rhetorical contortions appear in the debate over girls’ sports, where opponents warn that biological eligibility rules could lead to invasive examinations. Nick’s response was that a birth certificate should settle the matter without anyone conducting the inspections being invoked to frighten voters.
The ballot fights are a microcosm of national politics. Both parties support excessive spending, debt and war, while accountability for Epstein’s network remains conspicuously absent. Justin Amash has even described Trump’s proposed $5,000 payments and other policies as the authoritarian socialism Republicans spent decades warning against.
Premium Portfolio Picks — Lion Rock builds leverage while gold, lithium and uranium approach the whites of their eyes.
Gerardo began with Lion Rock Resources (TSX-V: ROAR)(OTC: LRRIF), one of his larger holdings.
The company has not yet produced the drilling or assay results investors want, but management continues completing the less glamorous work required to advance the Volney critical-metals project on private land in South Dakota.
Lion Rock recently added a retired colonel with significant Pentagon and military experience, along with several other strategic advisers. Their mandate includes pursuing potential offtake agreements and other partnerships involving the project’s suite of critical metals.
Gerardo would prefer drilling to begin immediately, but he supports management’s effort to find nondilutive funding. Surface-sampling results and metallurgical work are also pending. A strategic agreement could finance exploration while reducing the amount of equity the company must issue.
Daura Gold (TSX-V: DGC)(OTC: DGCOF) has begun drilling four targets in Argentina. Gerardo recently wrote a substantial check into the company and owns both shares and warrants.
The stock trades near $0.225 with a market capitalization of roughly $17 million–$19 million. Some shareholders may dislike the decision to spend capital in Argentina, but one meaningful discovery could double or triple a company of that size and provide access to capital at much higher prices.
Success in Argentina could also support a more aggressive program at Daura’s Peruvian asset, which adjoins and extends toward Highlander Silver’s project. The outcome still depends on drilling, but Gerardo believes the present valuation offers attractive leverage to discovery.
Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU)(TSX: EFR) provides a larger and more liquid alternative. The company combines uranium and rare-earth exposure with existing revenue, giving investors a business that is easier to quantify than an early-stage explorer.
Its chart resembles those of enCore Energy, Uranium Energy Corp. and the Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF. Nick believes the uranium sector may have slightly more downside before reaching his preferred entry points. He compared his approach with waiting until he can see the whites of the market’s eyes.
North Shore Uranium (TSX-V: NSU)(OTC: NSURF) was on his list for discussion, but Nick decided to wait for additional weakness in URNJ before revisiting it.
He is also preparing to increase his direct gold allocation. Nick sold part of his gold position last October, took partial profits in GDXJ during April and recently closed the remainder of a silver ETF position for an approximately 148% gain.
He has since rebuilt some GDXJ exposure but has not restored the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) position sold a year ago. GLD currently trades around $378, while his longstanding buy-under price is $360. The ETF reached approximately $365 during the summer weakness.
Nick expects another test of those lows as yields and the dollar remain elevated. He would increase his allocation if gold falls below $4,100 and approaches $4,000, corresponding with GLD near his $360 target.
Lithium stocks offer another contrarian setup. Lithium carbonate has fallen approximately 20%–25% during the past four to six weeks and returned below $20,000 per tonne, near a nine-month low.
High-quality companies including PMET Resources (TSX: PMET)(OTC: PMETF) and Q2 Metals (TSX-V: QTWO)(OTC: QUEXF) have followed the commodity toward their 52-week lows. Elevra Lithium also failed to respond after announcing a supply agreement with LG Energy Solution covering 240,000 dry metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate over three years from its North American Lithium operation in Quebec.
Nick believes those depressed valuations offer attractive long-term opportunities for investors willing to buy against current sentiment.
AU Gold (TSX-V: AUGC)(OTC: AUGCF) remains one of Gerardo’s highest-conviction exploration positions. The latest private placement is already up approximately 40% even though the financing has not closed. The original $2 million offering was increased to $3.5 million, and management declined additional demand.
The prior C$0.15 financing has appreciated approximately 120%, while its C$0.30 warrants are now in the money. Gerardo has not sold any shares or warrants. Drilling is expected to begin within approximately a week.
Hannan Metals (TSX-V: HAN)(OTC: HANNF) has reportedly commenced drilling in Sweden, while Daura’s program is underway in Argentina. Gerardo expects those programs and other active holdings to generate important catalysts before year-end.
Nick is also increasing his exposure to Kingsmen Resources (TSX-V: KNG)(OTC: KNGRF) by exercising his warrants.
Kingsmen continues drilling at Las Coloradas and is awaiting assays from the Saddle target, approximately 2.5 kilometers from the most recent drilling. Strong widths and mineralization there could support the thesis that Las Coloradas represents a district-scale silver system.
Drilling is also expected at Almoloya during the coming months. Kingsmen has an approximately C$35 million market capitalization, roughly C$15 million in cash and another C$1.8 million expected from warrant exercises.
The companies and commodities differ, but the strategy remains consistent: buy quality assets while investors are bored, tired or bearish, then allow drilling, development and the commodity cycle time to create value.
Nick and Gerardo will both attend the New Orleans Investment Conference later this month and plan to record an episode live from New Orleans.
October 08, 2026
Here’s what was covered in episode 383:
Macro Musings — China plays the long game while gold probes its new $4,000 floor.
Gerardo believes $4,000 has become gold’s new floor. The metal weakened while China was closed for a weeklong holiday, then firmed above $4,100 after Chinese markets reopened.
That timing matters because China continues to accumulate gold while tightening its grip on the world’s critical-material supply chains. Gerardo noted that the country has added to its official gold reserves for 22 or 23 consecutive months while restricting exports of strategic metals and preserving domestic supplies of diesel and natural gas.
Nick argued that China’s advantage was built over decades. State-owned companies established positions throughout Africa and Latin America, while China developed the refining and processing infrastructure that now controls 80%–90% of the supply chain for certain strategic materials.
The West finally recognizes the problem. Governments have passed legislation, reduced permitting barriers and established financing programs for domestic mining and processing. Still, a signature on an executive order does not put ore into a mill. New mines can require three, five or 10 years before producing material.
Gold remains short-term bearish after breaking support near $4,240 and $4,175, but it appears to be probing for a bottom above $4,000. Silver looks weaker below $60. Copper remains the strongest of the three metals and continues trading near historically high levels.
Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar are creating the immediate pressure. The DXY has broken above 102, while 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are approaching levels not seen in roughly 24 years. The Federal Reserve has also returned to raising rates, producing a formidable double headwind for precious metals and mining equities.
Nick expects those conditions to soften over the next several months. Third-quarter GDP could register between 3% and 4% when released on October 29, but higher oil prices should slow growth during the fourth quarter and first quarter. Inflation should also decelerate as year-over-year oil comparisons become more difficult.
Slower growth and disinflation would give the Fed room to become less hawkish. The market had priced in four additional rate hikes over the coming year but has already reduced that expectation to three. A softer dollar and lower yields would provide the conditions gold and silver need to resume their longer-term advances.
The global debt problem supplies the more durable bullish case. Large amounts of debt must be refinanced during the next several quarters, while countries including France face their own fiscal strains. Gerardo expects those pressures to force Kevin Warsh toward a more dovish position regardless of the administration’s public demands for lower rates.
Market Takes — The S&P reaches records on disappearing breadth while AI pushes capital spending past $1 trillion.
The S&P 500 reached another record high even though only one of its 11 sectors produced a positive return over the preceding month.
That contradiction reflects the index’s extreme concentration. A handful of hyperscalers and technology companies, including Apple, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft, continue lifting the capitalization-weighted index while real estate, industrials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and most other sectors decline.
Earlier in the year, market participation broadened into energy, healthcare and other sectors. That breadth has since disappeared. Depending on the trading day, five to 10 companies can account for approximately 40% of the S&P 500’s movement.
Artificial intelligence remains the dominant source of capital spending and investor enthusiasm. Previous estimates placed hyperscaler spending around $600 billion–$700 billion, but a recent Goldman Sachs report suggested AI-related capital expenditures could exceed $1 trillion in 2026.
Goldman compared the current investment cycle with earlier technological revolutions involving the telephone and the internet and concluded that spending has not yet become historically excessive on a relative basis. Gerardo sees that additional infrastructure demand strengthening an already bullish copper outlook.
Copper traded near $6.90 at the end of September, pulled back and then briefly reached approximately $6.76 during the week. Nick remains bullish across the short, medium and long term because existing production cannot satisfy projected demand.
Gerardo believes prices of $12–$14 per pound are possible over the next several years. If AI and data-center economics develop as promised, technology companies will care more about securing copper and uranium than minimizing what they pay for either commodity.
Aldebaran Resources (TSX-V: ALDE)(OTC: ADBRF) offered an immediate example of how the market can reward a major copper result. The company reported an approximately 1.7-kilometer intercept grading better than 0.4% copper equivalent, extending far beyond the existing pit shell at Altar.
Shares climbed from approximately $2.68 before the announcement to $3.35 on the news and then reached $3.59 the following day. A resource update is expected during the next several months.
Nick owns Aldebaran and recommends it in Underground Alpha. Gerardo interviewed CEO John Black after the result and believes the company could eventually be acquired at a substantial premium. Black previously monetized Antares and has discussed how Aldebaran once traded below $0.01 per attributable pound of copper, compared with approximately $0.07 per pound received in the Antares transaction.
Even an exceptional drill hole does nothing to solve the immediate copper shortage. Aldebaran still requires an updated resource, engineering studies, financing, permitting and construction before it can produce metal. The result illustrates both the scale of the opportunity and the time required to turn discoveries into supply.
Bizarro Banter — Universal high income meets artificial surveillance and ballot-box theater.
Gerardo watched an interview with a former Anthropic employee who warned about autonomous AI agents, labor displacement and the possibility of providing everyone with a “universal high income” once artificial intelligence and robotics become sufficiently productive.
The proposal raises a deeper question. Would people accept financial security if the tradeoff were surrendering their agency, work and sense of purpose to a handful of companies controlling the technology?
Gerardo would not. He finds meaning in building a business, evaluating investments and helping subscribers turn $1 into $2 and potentially $10. However, he suspects most voters would choose guaranteed income if given the opportunity.
Nick sees inflation as the most immediate problem with that promise. Giving everyone a high income does not create more goods, housing or services. It merely gives everyone more currency with which to compete for the same supply. Homebuyer subsidies increase home prices, stimulus checks contributed to inflation and a universal high income could eventually make a loaf of bread cost $100.
He compared AI with the automation of tollbooths. Eliminating toll collectors removed certain jobs, but faster transportation created economic value elsewhere. Geomorphic AI, in which Nick and Gerardo are shareholders, offers a mining-sector example. The platform accelerates project generation and analysis, but successful targets still require geologists, drillers and development teams.
The technology also creates obvious problems. Job applicants use AI to prepare résumés, employers use AI to screen them and qualified people can pass through the entire process without ever speaking to another person.
Gerardo remains more concerned about who controls the technology and how much power they will accumulate. Nick views today’s AI leaders as the latest version of the railroad and oil barons: powerful, self-interested and potentially dangerous, but also capable of building infrastructure that creates new industries.
Their debate arrived alongside reports of a Florida woman arrested after Claude allegedly flagged a mass-shooting threat written in her private AI diary. Another man reportedly required rescue from a cliff after relying on AI to plan his climbing route. The lesson was straightforward: be careful what you tell artificial intelligence, and do not assume it knows what it is doing.
Nick then turned to three Washington ballot initiatives involving the state income tax, parental rights in schools and eligibility for girls’ and women’s sports. He plans to vote to repeal the income tax, increase parental notification requirements and reserve female sports for biological girls and women.
His larger objection concerned the official arguments presented to voters. Opponents of repealing the income tax warn that schools will lose funding, even though the tax does not take effect until 2028 and its proceeds are currently destined for the general fund rather than specifically for education.
State officials also claim voters can address future expansion of the tax at the ballot box. Nick finds that promise difficult to accept after Washington voters approved freedom of energy choice, only to have the measure overturned on technical grounds.
The same rhetorical contortions appear in the debate over girls’ sports, where opponents warn that biological eligibility rules could lead to invasive examinations. Nick’s response was that a birth certificate should settle the matter without anyone conducting the inspections being invoked to frighten voters.
The ballot fights are a microcosm of national politics. Both parties support excessive spending, debt and war, while accountability for Epstein’s network remains conspicuously absent. Justin Amash has even described Trump’s proposed $5,000 payments and other policies as the authoritarian socialism Republicans spent decades warning against.
Premium Portfolio Picks — Lion Rock builds leverage while gold, lithium and uranium approach the whites of their eyes.
Gerardo began with Lion Rock Resources (TSX-V: ROAR)(OTC: LRRIF), one of his larger holdings.
The company has not yet produced the drilling or assay results investors want, but management continues completing the less glamorous work required to advance the Volney critical-metals project on private land in South Dakota.
Lion Rock recently added a retired colonel with significant Pentagon and military experience, along with several other strategic advisers. Their mandate includes pursuing potential offtake agreements and other partnerships involving the project’s suite of critical metals.
Gerardo would prefer drilling to begin immediately, but he supports management’s effort to find nondilutive funding. Surface-sampling results and metallurgical work are also pending. A strategic agreement could finance exploration while reducing the amount of equity the company must issue.
Daura Gold (TSX-V: DGC)(OTC: DGCOF) has begun drilling four targets in Argentina. Gerardo recently wrote a substantial check into the company and owns both shares and warrants.
The stock trades near $0.225 with a market capitalization of roughly $17 million–$19 million. Some shareholders may dislike the decision to spend capital in Argentina, but one meaningful discovery could double or triple a company of that size and provide access to capital at much higher prices.
Success in Argentina could also support a more aggressive program at Daura’s Peruvian asset, which adjoins and extends toward Highlander Silver’s project. The outcome still depends on drilling, but Gerardo believes the present valuation offers attractive leverage to discovery.
Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU)(TSX: EFR) provides a larger and more liquid alternative. The company combines uranium and rare-earth exposure with existing revenue, giving investors a business that is easier to quantify than an early-stage explorer.
Its chart resembles those of enCore Energy, Uranium Energy Corp. and the Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF. Nick believes the uranium sector may have slightly more downside before reaching his preferred entry points. He compared his approach with waiting until he can see the whites of the market’s eyes.
North Shore Uranium (TSX-V: NSU)(OTC: NSURF) was on his list for discussion, but Nick decided to wait for additional weakness in URNJ before revisiting it.
He is also preparing to increase his direct gold allocation. Nick sold part of his gold position last October, took partial profits in GDXJ during April and recently closed the remainder of a silver ETF position for an approximately 148% gain.
He has since rebuilt some GDXJ exposure but has not restored the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) position sold a year ago. GLD currently trades around $378, while his longstanding buy-under price is $360. The ETF reached approximately $365 during the summer weakness.
Nick expects another test of those lows as yields and the dollar remain elevated. He would increase his allocation if gold falls below $4,100 and approaches $4,000, corresponding with GLD near his $360 target.
Lithium stocks offer another contrarian setup. Lithium carbonate has fallen approximately 20%–25% during the past four to six weeks and returned below $20,000 per tonne, near a nine-month low.
High-quality companies including PMET Resources (TSX: PMET)(OTC: PMETF) and Q2 Metals (TSX-V: QTWO)(OTC: QUEXF) have followed the commodity toward their 52-week lows. Elevra Lithium also failed to respond after announcing a supply agreement with LG Energy Solution covering 240,000 dry metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate over three years from its North American Lithium operation in Quebec.
Nick believes those depressed valuations offer attractive long-term opportunities for investors willing to buy against current sentiment.
AU Gold (TSX-V: AUGC)(OTC: AUGCF) remains one of Gerardo’s highest-conviction exploration positions. The latest private placement is already up approximately 40% even though the financing has not closed. The original $2 million offering was increased to $3.5 million, and management declined additional demand.
The prior C$0.15 financing has appreciated approximately 120%, while its C$0.30 warrants are now in the money. Gerardo has not sold any shares or warrants. Drilling is expected to begin within approximately a week.
Hannan Metals (TSX-V: HAN)(OTC: HANNF) has reportedly commenced drilling in Sweden, while Daura’s program is underway in Argentina. Gerardo expects those programs and other active holdings to generate important catalysts before year-end.
Nick is also increasing his exposure to Kingsmen Resources (TSX-V: KNG)(OTC: KNGRF) by exercising his warrants.
Kingsmen continues drilling at Las Coloradas and is awaiting assays from the Saddle target, approximately 2.5 kilometers from the most recent drilling. Strong widths and mineralization there could support the thesis that Las Coloradas represents a district-scale silver system.
Drilling is also expected at Almoloya during the coming months. Kingsmen has an approximately C$35 million market capitalization, roughly C$15 million in cash and another C$1.8 million expected from warrant exercises.
The companies and commodities differ, but the strategy remains consistent: buy quality assets while investors are bored, tired or bearish, then allow drilling, development and the commodity cycle time to create value.
Nick and Gerardo will both attend the New Orleans Investment Conference later this month and plan to record an episode live from New Orleans.
October 08, 2026
Here’s what was covered in episode 383:
Macro Musings — China plays the long game while gold probes its new $4,000 floor.
Gerardo believes $4,000 has become gold’s new floor. The metal weakened while China was closed for a weeklong holiday, then firmed above $4,100 after Chinese markets reopened.
That timing matters because China continues to accumulate gold while tightening its grip on the world’s critical-material supply chains. Gerardo noted that the country has added to its official gold reserves for 22 or 23 consecutive months while restricting exports of strategic metals and preserving domestic supplies of diesel and natural gas.
Nick argued that China’s advantage was built over decades. State-owned companies established positions throughout Africa and Latin America, while China developed the refining and processing infrastructure that now controls 80%–90% of the supply chain for certain strategic materials.
The West finally recognizes the problem. Governments have passed legislation, reduced permitting barriers and established financing programs for domestic mining and processing. Still, a signature on an executive order does not put ore into a mill. New mines can require three, five or 10 years before producing material.
Gold remains short-term bearish after breaking support near $4,240 and $4,175, but it appears to be probing for a bottom above $4,000. Silver looks weaker below $60. Copper remains the strongest of the three metals and continues trading near historically high levels.
Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar are creating the immediate pressure. The DXY has broken above 102, while 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are approaching levels not seen in roughly 24 years. The Federal Reserve has also returned to raising rates, producing a formidable double headwind for precious metals and mining equities.
Nick expects those conditions to soften over the next several months. Third-quarter GDP could register between 3% and 4% when released on October 29, but higher oil prices should slow growth during the fourth quarter and first quarter. Inflation should also decelerate as year-over-year oil comparisons become more difficult.
Slower growth and disinflation would give the Fed room to become less hawkish. The market had priced in four additional rate hikes over the coming year but has already reduced that expectation to three. A softer dollar and lower yields would provide the conditions gold and silver need to resume their longer-term advances.
The global debt problem supplies the more durable bullish case. Large amounts of debt must be refinanced during the next several quarters, while countries including France face their own fiscal strains. Gerardo expects those pressures to force Kevin Warsh toward a more dovish position regardless of the administration’s public demands for lower rates.
Market Takes — The S&P reaches records on disappearing breadth while AI pushes capital spending past $1 trillion.
The S&P 500 reached another record high even though only one of its 11 sectors produced a positive return over the preceding month.
That contradiction reflects the index’s extreme concentration. A handful of hyperscalers and technology companies, including Apple, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft, continue lifting the capitalization-weighted index while real estate, industrials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples and most other sectors decline.
Earlier in the year, market participation broadened into energy, healthcare and other sectors. That breadth has since disappeared. Depending on the trading day, five to 10 companies can account for approximately 40% of the S&P 500’s movement.
Artificial intelligence remains the dominant source of capital spending and investor enthusiasm. Previous estimates placed hyperscaler spending around $600 billion–$700 billion, but a recent Goldman Sachs report suggested AI-related capital expenditures could exceed $1 trillion in 2026.
Goldman compared the current investment cycle with earlier technological revolutions involving the telephone and the internet and concluded that spending has not yet become historically excessive on a relative basis. Gerardo sees that additional infrastructure demand strengthening an already bullish copper outlook.
Copper traded near $6.90 at the end of September, pulled back and then briefly reached approximately $6.76 during the week. Nick remains bullish across the short, medium and long term because existing production cannot satisfy projected demand.
Gerardo believes prices of $12–$14 per pound are possible over the next several years. If AI and data-center economics develop as promised, technology companies will care more about securing copper and uranium than minimizing what they pay for either commodity.
Aldebaran Resources (TSX-V: ALDE)(OTC: ADBRF) offered an immediate example of how the market can reward a major copper result. The company reported an approximately 1.7-kilometer intercept grading better than 0.4% copper equivalent, extending far beyond the existing pit shell at Altar.
Shares climbed from approximately $2.68 before the announcement to $3.35 on the news and then reached $3.59 the following day. A resource update is expected during the next several months.
Nick owns Aldebaran and recommends it in Underground Alpha. Gerardo interviewed CEO John Black after the result and believes the company could eventually be acquired at a substantial premium. Black previously monetized Antares and has discussed how Aldebaran once traded below $0.01 per attributable pound of copper, compared with approximately $0.07 per pound received in the Antares transaction.
Even an exceptional drill hole does nothing to solve the immediate copper shortage. Aldebaran still requires an updated resource, engineering studies, financing, permitting and construction before it can produce metal. The result illustrates both the scale of the opportunity and the time required to turn discoveries into supply.
Bizarro Banter — Universal high income meets artificial surveillance and ballot-box theater.
Gerardo watched an interview with a former Anthropic employee who warned about autonomous AI agents, labor displacement and the possibility of providing everyone with a “universal high income” once artificial intelligence and robotics become sufficiently productive.
The proposal raises a deeper question. Would people accept financial security if the tradeoff were surrendering their agency, work and sense of purpose to a handful of companies controlling the technology?
Gerardo would not. He finds meaning in building a business, evaluating investments and helping subscribers turn $1 into $2 and potentially $10. However, he suspects most voters would choose guaranteed income if given the opportunity.
Nick sees inflation as the most immediate problem with that promise. Giving everyone a high income does not create more goods, housing or services. It merely gives everyone more currency with which to compete for the same supply. Homebuyer subsidies increase home prices, stimulus checks contributed to inflation and a universal high income could eventually make a loaf of bread cost $100.
He compared AI with the automation of tollbooths. Eliminating toll collectors removed certain jobs, but faster transportation created economic value elsewhere. Geomorphic AI, in which Nick and Gerardo are shareholders, offers a mining-sector example. The platform accelerates project generation and analysis, but successful targets still require geologists, drillers and development teams.
The technology also creates obvious problems. Job applicants use AI to prepare résumés, employers use AI to screen them and qualified people can pass through the entire process without ever speaking to another person.
Gerardo remains more concerned about who controls the technology and how much power they will accumulate. Nick views today’s AI leaders as the latest version of the railroad and oil barons: powerful, self-interested and potentially dangerous, but also capable of building infrastructure that creates new industries.
Their debate arrived alongside reports of a Florida woman arrested after Claude allegedly flagged a mass-shooting threat written in her private AI diary. Another man reportedly required rescue from a cliff after relying on AI to plan his climbing route. The lesson was straightforward: be careful what you tell artificial intelligence, and do not assume it knows what it is doing.
Nick then turned to three Washington ballot initiatives involving the state income tax, parental rights in schools and eligibility for girls’ and women’s sports. He plans to vote to repeal the income tax, increase parental notification requirements and reserve female sports for biological girls and women.
His larger objection concerned the official arguments presented to voters. Opponents of repealing the income tax warn that schools will lose funding, even though the tax does not take effect until 2028 and its proceeds are currently destined for the general fund rather than specifically for education.
State officials also claim voters can address future expansion of the tax at the ballot box. Nick finds that promise difficult to accept after Washington voters approved freedom of energy choice, only to have the measure overturned on technical grounds.
The same rhetorical contortions appear in the debate over girls’ sports, where opponents warn that biological eligibility rules could lead to invasive examinations. Nick’s response was that a birth certificate should settle the matter without anyone conducting the inspections being invoked to frighten voters.
The ballot fights are a microcosm of national politics. Both parties support excessive spending, debt and war, while accountability for Epstein’s network remains conspicuously absent. Justin Amash has even described Trump’s proposed $5,000 payments and other policies as the authoritarian socialism Republicans spent decades warning against.
Premium Portfolio Picks — Lion Rock builds leverage while gold, lithium and uranium approach the whites of their eyes.
Gerardo began with Lion Rock Resources (TSX-V: ROAR)(OTC: LRRIF), one of his larger holdings.
The company has not yet produced the drilling or assay results investors want, but management continues completing the less glamorous work required to advance the Volney critical-metals project on private land in South Dakota.
Lion Rock recently added a retired colonel with significant Pentagon and military experience, along with several other strategic advisers. Their mandate includes pursuing potential offtake agreements and other partnerships involving the project’s suite of critical metals.
Gerardo would prefer drilling to begin immediately, but he supports management’s effort to find nondilutive funding. Surface-sampling results and metallurgical work are also pending. A strategic agreement could finance exploration while reducing the amount of equity the company must issue.
Daura Gold (TSX-V: DGC)(OTC: DGCOF) has begun drilling four targets in Argentina. Gerardo recently wrote a substantial check into the company and owns both shares and warrants.
The stock trades near $0.225 with a market capitalization of roughly $17 million–$19 million. Some shareholders may dislike the decision to spend capital in Argentina, but one meaningful discovery could double or triple a company of that size and provide access to capital at much higher prices.
Success in Argentina could also support a more aggressive program at Daura’s Peruvian asset, which adjoins and extends toward Highlander Silver’s project. The outcome still depends on drilling, but Gerardo believes the present valuation offers attractive leverage to discovery.
Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU)(TSX: EFR) provides a larger and more liquid alternative. The company combines uranium and rare-earth exposure with existing revenue, giving investors a business that is easier to quantify than an early-stage explorer.
Its chart resembles those of enCore Energy, Uranium Energy Corp. and the Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF. Nick believes the uranium sector may have slightly more downside before reaching his preferred entry points. He compared his approach with waiting until he can see the whites of the market’s eyes.
North Shore Uranium (TSX-V: NSU)(OTC: NSURF) was on his list for discussion, but Nick decided to wait for additional weakness in URNJ before revisiting it.
He is also preparing to increase his direct gold allocation. Nick sold part of his gold position last October, took partial profits in GDXJ during April and recently closed the remainder of a silver ETF position for an approximately 148% gain.
He has since rebuilt some GDXJ exposure but has not restored the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) position sold a year ago. GLD currently trades around $378, while his longstanding buy-under price is $360. The ETF reached approximately $365 during the summer weakness.
Nick expects another test of those lows as yields and the dollar remain elevated. He would increase his allocation if gold falls below $4,100 and approaches $4,000, corresponding with GLD near his $360 target.
Lithium stocks offer another contrarian setup. Lithium carbonate has fallen approximately 20%–25% during the past four to six weeks and returned below $20,000 per tonne, near a nine-month low.
High-quality companies including PMET Resources (TSX: PMET)(OTC: PMETF) and Q2 Metals (TSX-V: QTWO)(OTC: QUEXF) have followed the commodity toward their 52-week lows. Elevra Lithium also failed to respond after announcing a supply agreement with LG Energy Solution covering 240,000 dry metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate over three years from its North American Lithium operation in Quebec.
Nick believes those depressed valuations offer attractive long-term opportunities for investors willing to buy against current sentiment.
AU Gold (TSX-V: AUGC)(OTC: AUGCF) remains one of Gerardo’s highest-conviction exploration positions. The latest private placement is already up approximately 40% even though the financing has not closed. The original $2 million offering was increased to $3.5 million, and management declined additional demand.
The prior C$0.15 financing has appreciated approximately 120%, while its C$0.30 warrants are now in the money. Gerardo has not sold any shares or warrants. Drilling is expected to begin within approximately a week.
Hannan Metals (TSX-V: HAN)(OTC: HANNF) has reportedly commenced drilling in Sweden, while Daura’s program is underway in Argentina. Gerardo expects those programs and other active holdings to generate important catalysts before year-end.
Nick is also increasing his exposure to Kingsmen Resources (TSX-V: KNG)(OTC: KNGRF) by exercising his warrants.
Kingsmen continues drilling at Las Coloradas and is awaiting assays from the Saddle target, approximately 2.5 kilometers from the most recent drilling. Strong widths and mineralization there could support the thesis that Las Coloradas represents a district-scale silver system.
Drilling is also expected at Almoloya during the coming months. Kingsmen has an approximately C$35 million market capitalization, roughly C$15 million in cash and another C$1.8 million expected from warrant exercises.
The companies and commodities differ, but the strategy remains consistent: buy quality assets while investors are bored, tired or bearish, then allow drilling, development and the commodity cycle time to create value.
Nick and Gerardo will both attend the New Orleans Investment Conference later this month and plan to record an episode live from New Orleans.