September 10, 2026
Here’s what was covered in episode 380:
Macro Musings — The bond vigilantes are calling Bessent’s bluff, and 5% is the line in the sand.
Gerardo opened with the turmoil in global bond markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had effectively challenged the bond vigilantes by declaring that he was “the house” and inviting the market to bet against him. For the moment, the market is doing exactly that.
The 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5.35%, while the 10-year approached the critical 5% level. Nick pulled up the long-term chart and explained why that threshold matters. A sustained breakout above 5% would take yields beyond their October 2023 high and open the technical path toward 5.33%, 6% and potentially even 7%. The last comparable yield levels coincided with periods such as the dot-com bust and the financial crisis.
Gerardo noted that the spread between the U.S. 10-year Treasury and China’s 10-year government bond had widened to approximately 324 basis points. Washington is now spending close to $2 trillion annually on interest while Beijing borrows cheaply and continues accumulating gold.
The renewed fighting with Iran has pushed crude oil back above $100 per barrel and added another inflationary force to the economy. The next CPI report was expected to come in around 3.6% to 3.7%, while the market was assigning roughly a 73% to 74% probability to a quarter-point rate increase at the September 16 Federal Reserve meeting.
Nick remains in the no-hike camp. The market may be signaling that higher rates are necessary to contain inflation, but the political system and the federal government’s refinancing needs make a hike extremely difficult. Washington is simultaneously discussing a $5,000 “Trump dividend,” which would add more fiscal stimulus to an economy already struggling with inflation, debt and rising borrowing costs.
The dollar remains weak, with the DXY near 99 even as Treasury yields rise. That combination reflects the absence of meaningful deficit reduction and the market’s deteriorating confidence in U.S. fiscal management.
Gold fell to nearly $4,300 this week amid higher rates. Nick identified roughly $4,330 as the immediate support level. If that fails, gold could retest $4,000. He would view that as a potentially healthy correction and likely buying opportunity rather than the end of the bull market.
Central-bank buying, institutional accumulation, inflation, currency weakness and unsustainable government debt continue to support the long-term gold thesis. Volatility remains elevated, however, and investors should be prepared for $100 or even multi-hundred-dollar moves in either direction.
Gerardo continues to view $4,000 as the new floor. He expects China and other overseas buyers to keep taking advantage of weakness, as they have repeatedly during the current bull market.
Silver had fallen to approximately $63.50 after failing to hold $66. Nick characterized the short-term setup as neutral and potentially bearish unless silver can reclaim $64. The next Federal Reserve decision should provide more clarity. At the same time, persistent inflation could restore silver’s bid because it participates in both the precious-metals and industrial-commodity markets.
Market Takes — Inflation is returning, commodities are breaking out and the pullback may be a gift.
The CRB Commodity Index has broken out of a multi-year cup-and-handle formation and is trading near record highs. Nick sees that as confirmation that the commodity supercycle that began in 2020 remains intact.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 agricultural commodities, gained approximately 13% in August. Gerardo also cited a 1.9% August increase in the World Food Price Index, taking it to its highest level in nearly four years. With oil above $100, diesel at record highs and beef prices at all-time highs, he worries that the world could be moving toward a more serious food shortage or food-price crisis.
Copper recently reached record highs in both the United States and London before pulling back toward $6.50. The immediate catalyst was a report suggesting that President Trump may continue delaying a tariff decision because manufacturers are already struggling with high input costs.
Nick and Gerardo view the tariff headlines as short-term noise. The structural copper deficits remain, and the long-term chart would still be bullish even if copper corrected toward $5. Government jawboning can create violent daily moves, but it does not produce new mines or solve the underlying supply problem.
For investors who missed the late-summer rally, fall weakness may provide another chance to build positions in high-conviction gold, silver and copper companies. Nick has remained patient following a strong August and has not purchased anything during September. His only recent trade was a short-term leveraged gold-stock ETF position near the end of August.
Gerardo, meanwhile, is adding to selected precious-metals positions. He is also writing a substantial check into a new Private Placement Intel opportunity involving copper, gold and silver assets in two Tier 1 jurisdictions. He expects the company to conduct potentially game-changing exploration over the next 6 to 12 months.
Another Private Placement Intel opportunity is being finalized for the coming weeks. It involves a district-scale gold project with critical metals in a Tier 1 jurisdiction, a small market capitalization and management that Nick and Gerardo know from previous successful investments. If everything proceeds as planned, the financing will fund drilling in the coming months.
Private Placement Intel is approaching its 250-member limit, after which additional spots will only become available when an existing member leaves. See how to participate in these deals with Nick and Gerardo here.
Bizarro Banter — Washington campaigns against socialism while practicing redistribution, censorship and tribal politics.
The Republican midterm convention reportedly struggled with attendance in Dallas, while the local Grindr app crashed after delegates arrived. Gerardo used the episode to highlight the gap between the party’s “family values” messaging and the behavior of some of its members. He was careful to note that sexual orientation has nothing to do with whether someone possesses family values; his criticism was directed at hypocrisy.
That led to Sydney Sweeney’s highly sexualized campaign for the Novig sports-trading app. Gerardo praised Sweeney for consensually monetizing her beauty and questioned why critics on the left were more outraged by an adult woman’s advertising campaign than by far more consequential issues. Nick added that Sweeney, a Spokane native, had recently returned home to help distribute food following local fires.
Nick and Gerardo also revisited the Lindsay Clancy case. Both believe she must be held accountable for admitting that she killed her three children. At the same time, the case exposed severe failures in mental-health treatment, including an extraordinary number of prescriptions reportedly provided within a short period. They rejected efforts to blame her husband and criticized the online tribalism that turned the case into another ideological contest.
The political discussion then shifted to socialism and communism. Gerardo argued that the left would be far more persuasive branding itself around “compassionate capitalism” rather than democratic socialism. The right, meanwhile, is campaigning against communism while proposing $5,000 government checks and ignoring debt, inequality, veterans’ benefits and the country’s mental-health crisis.
They also discussed reports concerning alleged connections between Mitch McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, and entities associated with the Chinese Communist Party. Their broader point was that partisan warnings about foreign influence rarely extend to politically connected members of one’s own side.
Nick used Zohran Mamdani’s discounted U.S. Open tickets as an example of redistribution that does not address the underlying problem. Making a limited number of tickets cheaper for selected residents generates a political victory, but it does nothing to explain or reduce the original cost of attending the tournament.
A new Roy Cohn biography prompted another discussion of political contradiction. Cohn prosecuted alleged communists during the McCarthy era, remained closeted throughout his life, represented prominent organized-crime figures and later became an important mentor to Donald Trump.
Nick also discussed Nickel and Dimed by Barbara Ehrenreich. He appreciated the book’s examination of low-wage workers struggling with housing, healthcare, transportation and invasive employment practices. After finishing it, however, he learned that Ehrenreich had served as a co-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America. He found a contradiction between her political advocacy and the temporary nature of her experiment, during which she yearned to return to a comfortable professional life.
The hosts then turned to an FCC equal-time controversy surrounding Jimmy Kimmel’s interview with Texas candidate James Talarico. Regardless of the technical rule being invoked, both saw government threats against broadcast licenses as a dangerous step toward censorship.
Their conclusion was that Americans have more in common than political media suggests. Most people want safe communities, quality education, meaningful work, good pay, decent benefits and opportunities for their children. Civil discourse becomes easier when those shared goals form the starting point.
Finally, an AI expert’s estimate of a 10% chance that artificial intelligence could destroy humanity by the end of the decade led to a lighter ending. Nick acknowledged that the technology is becoming more capable, including its ability to search company filings, while remaining maddeningly unable to follow basic editorial instructions. His conclusion: if AI still cannot format a title correctly, he is not yet worried about it killing him.
Premium Portfolio Picks — A monster Talon hole, pending Kingsmen assays and overlooked opportunities around the Great Lakes.
Gerardo began with Kingsmen Resources (TSX-V: KNG)(OTC: KNGRF), where assays remain pending from the Saddle target. The laboratories are backed up, but results were expected within roughly two weeks.
Saddle is located well away from the mineralization already established at Las Coloradas. If the drilling returns mineralization with grades comparable to Kingsmen’s earlier results, Gerardo believes the new target could materially change the scale of the story.
The standout result of the week belonged to Talon Metals (TSX: TLO)(OTC: TLOFF). Neither Nick nor Gerardo owns the company, although Bob Bishop highlighted it at the New Orleans conference last year as one of his largest positions and a potential “next Voisey’s Bay.”
Talon reported 46.43 meters grading 13.37% nickel, 16.54% copper, 0.10% cobalt, 7.85 grams per tonne palladium, 14.49 grams per tonne platinum and 8.56 grams per tonne gold. The interval equates to 27.39% nickel equivalent or 54.78% copper equivalent.
The market rewarded the result, sending Talon shares approximately 35% higher during the session. The stock had roughly doubled from its early-August level.
Both hosts congratulated the company and its shareholders, but they remain concerned about the project’s Minnesota location. Gerardo stayed on the sidelines specifically because of permitting and political risk. The geology is exceptional; whether the deposit can be permitted and developed efficiently remains the central question.
Nick broadened the discussion to the volcanogenic massive-sulphide belt running through Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ontario. The geology does not stop at political borders, but permitting conditions can change dramatically from one jurisdiction to another.
He pointed to Highland Copper (TSX-V: HI)(OTC: HDRSF), which he does not own, after the company reportedly secured a $50 million grant from the State of Michigan. That support suggests Michigan is prepared to help advance domestic copper projects.
Nick does own GreenLight Metals (TSX-V: GRL)(OTC: GRLMF), which controls high-grade VMS projects in Wisconsin containing copper, zinc, gold, lead and other critical metals. Drilling is underway, additional results are expected and the state has a far deeper mining history than many investors realize. Wisconsin’s “Badger” identity itself originated with early lead miners.
The investment takeaway is to look beyond the deposit that has already captured the market’s attention. Comparable Great Lakes projects in jurisdictions offering a clearer path to construction may provide better risk-adjusted opportunities.
Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA)(TSX: PPTA) also announced new high-grade gold and antimony discoveries, along with a separate gold-tungsten zone at the Stibnite Project in Idaho. Nick and Gerardo visited the property more than a decade ago and recall that the number of prospective targets complicated decisions about where to place the processing infrastructure.
With construction advancing and strong federal and Export-Import Bank support, Perpetua demonstrates the value of owning a project that has a realistic path toward becoming a mine. The new discoveries reinforce the property’s remaining exploration potential.
Nick continues to see value in Gladiator Metals (TSX-V: GLAD)()OTC: GDTRF), which is conducting a large copper drill program at its Whitehorse project in the Yukon. He expects a steady flow of results around the fall conference calendar.
He also revisited MineHub Technologies (TSX-V: MHUB)(OTC: MHUBF), a company he owns in size. His buy-under price is C$0.90, while the shares have recently traded in the C$0.50 range after an uptrend broke down during late July and early August.
MineHub is now growing revenue and has expanded its customer base from a handful of users to more than 20. Growth has not been as fast as shareholders would like, but the underlying business continues to advance.
Nick investigated whether MineHub was suffering from guilt by association with Abaxx Technologies, whose shares had fallen from approximately C$72 in May to around C$18. MineHub previously received Abaxx shares through a strategic share exchange, but its June 30 management discussion and analysis indicated that it had sold the remaining position. The decline in Abaxx therefore does not directly impair MineHub’s current balance sheet.
A Jefferies-owned fund’s allegation of approximately $500 million in invoice fraud involving iron-ore trader Radiant World illustrates the problem MineHub is trying to solve. Its platform is designed to bring digitization, authentication, transparency and accountability to commodity transactions and supply chains.
Gerardo considers MineHub’s business model unusually scalable and views Abaxx as a possible long-term acquirer, although that remains speculation. At current prices, both hosts believe MineHub deserves another look.
The broader message from the premium section was patience and selectivity. Strong commodity markets do not require investors to chase every stock. Kingsmen’s pending assays, Talon’s extraordinary discovery, GreenLight’s drilling, Perpetua’s construction progress, Gladiator’s upcoming results and MineHub’s depressed valuation provide plenty of catalysts without abandoning discipline.
September 10, 2026
Here’s what was covered in episode 380:
Macro Musings — The bond vigilantes are calling Bessent’s bluff, and 5% is the line in the sand.
Gerardo opened with the turmoil in global bond markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had effectively challenged the bond vigilantes by declaring that he was “the house” and inviting the market to bet against him. For the moment, the market is doing exactly that.
The 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5.35%, while the 10-year approached the critical 5% level. Nick pulled up the long-term chart and explained why that threshold matters. A sustained breakout above 5% would take yields beyond their October 2023 high and open the technical path toward 5.33%, 6% and potentially even 7%. The last comparable yield levels coincided with periods such as the dot-com bust and the financial crisis.
Gerardo noted that the spread between the U.S. 10-year Treasury and China’s 10-year government bond had widened to approximately 324 basis points. Washington is now spending close to $2 trillion annually on interest while Beijing borrows cheaply and continues accumulating gold.
The renewed fighting with Iran has pushed crude oil back above $100 per barrel and added another inflationary force to the economy. The next CPI report was expected to come in around 3.6% to 3.7%, while the market was assigning roughly a 73% to 74% probability to a quarter-point rate increase at the September 16 Federal Reserve meeting.
Nick remains in the no-hike camp. The market may be signaling that higher rates are necessary to contain inflation, but the political system and the federal government’s refinancing needs make a hike extremely difficult. Washington is simultaneously discussing a $5,000 “Trump dividend,” which would add more fiscal stimulus to an economy already struggling with inflation, debt and rising borrowing costs.
The dollar remains weak, with the DXY near 99 even as Treasury yields rise. That combination reflects the absence of meaningful deficit reduction and the market’s deteriorating confidence in U.S. fiscal management.
Gold fell to nearly $4,300 this week amid higher rates. Nick identified roughly $4,330 as the immediate support level. If that fails, gold could retest $4,000. He would view that as a potentially healthy correction and likely buying opportunity rather than the end of the bull market.
Central-bank buying, institutional accumulation, inflation, currency weakness and unsustainable government debt continue to support the long-term gold thesis. Volatility remains elevated, however, and investors should be prepared for $100 or even multi-hundred-dollar moves in either direction.
Gerardo continues to view $4,000 as the new floor. He expects China and other overseas buyers to keep taking advantage of weakness, as they have repeatedly during the current bull market.
Silver had fallen to approximately $63.50 after failing to hold $66. Nick characterized the short-term setup as neutral and potentially bearish unless silver can reclaim $64. The next Federal Reserve decision should provide more clarity. At the same time, persistent inflation could restore silver’s bid because it participates in both the precious-metals and industrial-commodity markets.
Market Takes — Inflation is returning, commodities are breaking out and the pullback may be a gift.
The CRB Commodity Index has broken out of a multi-year cup-and-handle formation and is trading near record highs. Nick sees that as confirmation that the commodity supercycle that began in 2020 remains intact.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 agricultural commodities, gained approximately 13% in August. Gerardo also cited a 1.9% August increase in the World Food Price Index, taking it to its highest level in nearly four years. With oil above $100, diesel at record highs and beef prices at all-time highs, he worries that the world could be moving toward a more serious food shortage or food-price crisis.
Copper recently reached record highs in both the United States and London before pulling back toward $6.50. The immediate catalyst was a report suggesting that President Trump may continue delaying a tariff decision because manufacturers are already struggling with high input costs.
Nick and Gerardo view the tariff headlines as short-term noise. The structural copper deficits remain, and the long-term chart would still be bullish even if copper corrected toward $5. Government jawboning can create violent daily moves, but it does not produce new mines or solve the underlying supply problem.
For investors who missed the late-summer rally, fall weakness may provide another chance to build positions in high-conviction gold, silver and copper companies. Nick has remained patient following a strong August and has not purchased anything during September. His only recent trade was a short-term leveraged gold-stock ETF position near the end of August.
Gerardo, meanwhile, is adding to selected precious-metals positions. He is also writing a substantial check into a new Private Placement Intel opportunity involving copper, gold and silver assets in two Tier 1 jurisdictions. He expects the company to conduct potentially game-changing exploration over the next 6 to 12 months.
Another Private Placement Intel opportunity is being finalized for the coming weeks. It involves a district-scale gold project with critical metals in a Tier 1 jurisdiction, a small market capitalization and management that Nick and Gerardo know from previous successful investments. If everything proceeds as planned, the financing will fund drilling in the coming months.
Private Placement Intel is approaching its 250-member limit, after which additional spots will only become available when an existing member leaves. See how to participate in these deals with Nick and Gerardo here.
Bizarro Banter — Washington campaigns against socialism while practicing redistribution, censorship and tribal politics.
The Republican midterm convention reportedly struggled with attendance in Dallas, while the local Grindr app crashed after delegates arrived. Gerardo used the episode to highlight the gap between the party’s “family values” messaging and the behavior of some of its members. He was careful to note that sexual orientation has nothing to do with whether someone possesses family values; his criticism was directed at hypocrisy.
That led to Sydney Sweeney’s highly sexualized campaign for the Novig sports-trading app. Gerardo praised Sweeney for consensually monetizing her beauty and questioned why critics on the left were more outraged by an adult woman’s advertising campaign than by far more consequential issues. Nick added that Sweeney, a Spokane native, had recently returned home to help distribute food following local fires.
Nick and Gerardo also revisited the Lindsay Clancy case. Both believe she must be held accountable for admitting that she killed her three children. At the same time, the case exposed severe failures in mental-health treatment, including an extraordinary number of prescriptions reportedly provided within a short period. They rejected efforts to blame her husband and criticized the online tribalism that turned the case into another ideological contest.
The political discussion then shifted to socialism and communism. Gerardo argued that the left would be far more persuasive branding itself around “compassionate capitalism” rather than democratic socialism. The right, meanwhile, is campaigning against communism while proposing $5,000 government checks and ignoring debt, inequality, veterans’ benefits and the country’s mental-health crisis.
They also discussed reports concerning alleged connections between Mitch McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, and entities associated with the Chinese Communist Party. Their broader point was that partisan warnings about foreign influence rarely extend to politically connected members of one’s own side.
Nick used Zohran Mamdani’s discounted U.S. Open tickets as an example of redistribution that does not address the underlying problem. Making a limited number of tickets cheaper for selected residents generates a political victory, but it does nothing to explain or reduce the original cost of attending the tournament.
A new Roy Cohn biography prompted another discussion of political contradiction. Cohn prosecuted alleged communists during the McCarthy era, remained closeted throughout his life, represented prominent organized-crime figures and later became an important mentor to Donald Trump.
Nick also discussed Nickel and Dimed by Barbara Ehrenreich. He appreciated the book’s examination of low-wage workers struggling with housing, healthcare, transportation and invasive employment practices. After finishing it, however, he learned that Ehrenreich had served as a co-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America. He found a contradiction between her political advocacy and the temporary nature of her experiment, during which she yearned to return to a comfortable professional life.
The hosts then turned to an FCC equal-time controversy surrounding Jimmy Kimmel’s interview with Texas candidate James Talarico. Regardless of the technical rule being invoked, both saw government threats against broadcast licenses as a dangerous step toward censorship.
Their conclusion was that Americans have more in common than political media suggests. Most people want safe communities, quality education, meaningful work, good pay, decent benefits and opportunities for their children. Civil discourse becomes easier when those shared goals form the starting point.
Finally, an AI expert’s estimate of a 10% chance that artificial intelligence could destroy humanity by the end of the decade led to a lighter ending. Nick acknowledged that the technology is becoming more capable, including its ability to search company filings, while remaining maddeningly unable to follow basic editorial instructions. His conclusion: if AI still cannot format a title correctly, he is not yet worried about it killing him.
Premium Portfolio Picks — A monster Talon hole, pending Kingsmen assays and overlooked opportunities around the Great Lakes.
Gerardo began with Kingsmen Resources (TSX-V: KNG)(OTC: KNGRF), where assays remain pending from the Saddle target. The laboratories are backed up, but results were expected within roughly two weeks.
Saddle is located well away from the mineralization already established at Las Coloradas. If the drilling returns mineralization with grades comparable to Kingsmen’s earlier results, Gerardo believes the new target could materially change the scale of the story.
The standout result of the week belonged to Talon Metals (TSX: TLO)(OTC: TLOFF). Neither Nick nor Gerardo owns the company, although Bob Bishop highlighted it at the New Orleans conference last year as one of his largest positions and a potential “next Voisey’s Bay.”
Talon reported 46.43 meters grading 13.37% nickel, 16.54% copper, 0.10% cobalt, 7.85 grams per tonne palladium, 14.49 grams per tonne platinum and 8.56 grams per tonne gold. The interval equates to 27.39% nickel equivalent or 54.78% copper equivalent.
The market rewarded the result, sending Talon shares approximately 35% higher during the session. The stock had roughly doubled from its early-August level.
Both hosts congratulated the company and its shareholders, but they remain concerned about the project’s Minnesota location. Gerardo stayed on the sidelines specifically because of permitting and political risk. The geology is exceptional; whether the deposit can be permitted and developed efficiently remains the central question.
Nick broadened the discussion to the volcanogenic massive-sulphide belt running through Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ontario. The geology does not stop at political borders, but permitting conditions can change dramatically from one jurisdiction to another.
He pointed to Highland Copper (TSX-V: HI)(OTC: HDRSF), which he does not own, after the company reportedly secured a $50 million grant from the State of Michigan. That support suggests Michigan is prepared to help advance domestic copper projects.
Nick does own GreenLight Metals (TSX-V: GRL)(OTC: GRLMF), which controls high-grade VMS projects in Wisconsin containing copper, zinc, gold, lead and other critical metals. Drilling is underway, additional results are expected and the state has a far deeper mining history than many investors realize. Wisconsin’s “Badger” identity itself originated with early lead miners.
The investment takeaway is to look beyond the deposit that has already captured the market’s attention. Comparable Great Lakes projects in jurisdictions offering a clearer path to construction may provide better risk-adjusted opportunities.
Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA)(TSX: PPTA) also announced new high-grade gold and antimony discoveries, along with a separate gold-tungsten zone at the Stibnite Project in Idaho. Nick and Gerardo visited the property more than a decade ago and recall that the number of prospective targets complicated decisions about where to place the processing infrastructure.
With construction advancing and strong federal and Export-Import Bank support, Perpetua demonstrates the value of owning a project that has a realistic path toward becoming a mine. The new discoveries reinforce the property’s remaining exploration potential.
Nick continues to see value in Gladiator Metals (TSX-V: GLAD)()OTC: GDTRF), which is conducting a large copper drill program at its Whitehorse project in the Yukon. He expects a steady flow of results around the fall conference calendar.
He also revisited MineHub Technologies (TSX-V: MHUB)(OTC: MHUBF), a company he owns in size. His buy-under price is C$0.90, while the shares have recently traded in the C$0.50 range after an uptrend broke down during late July and early August.
MineHub is now growing revenue and has expanded its customer base from a handful of users to more than 20. Growth has not been as fast as shareholders would like, but the underlying business continues to advance.
Nick investigated whether MineHub was suffering from guilt by association with Abaxx Technologies, whose shares had fallen from approximately C$72 in May to around C$18. MineHub previously received Abaxx shares through a strategic share exchange, but its June 30 management discussion and analysis indicated that it had sold the remaining position. The decline in Abaxx therefore does not directly impair MineHub’s current balance sheet.
A Jefferies-owned fund’s allegation of approximately $500 million in invoice fraud involving iron-ore trader Radiant World illustrates the problem MineHub is trying to solve. Its platform is designed to bring digitization, authentication, transparency and accountability to commodity transactions and supply chains.
Gerardo considers MineHub’s business model unusually scalable and views Abaxx as a possible long-term acquirer, although that remains speculation. At current prices, both hosts believe MineHub deserves another look.
The broader message from the premium section was patience and selectivity. Strong commodity markets do not require investors to chase every stock. Kingsmen’s pending assays, Talon’s extraordinary discovery, GreenLight’s drilling, Perpetua’s construction progress, Gladiator’s upcoming results and MineHub’s depressed valuation provide plenty of catalysts without abandoning discipline.
September 10, 2026
Here’s what was covered in episode 380:
Macro Musings — The bond vigilantes are calling Bessent’s bluff, and 5% is the line in the sand.
Gerardo opened with the turmoil in global bond markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had effectively challenged the bond vigilantes by declaring that he was “the house” and inviting the market to bet against him. For the moment, the market is doing exactly that.
The 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5.35%, while the 10-year approached the critical 5% level. Nick pulled up the long-term chart and explained why that threshold matters. A sustained breakout above 5% would take yields beyond their October 2023 high and open the technical path toward 5.33%, 6% and potentially even 7%. The last comparable yield levels coincided with periods such as the dot-com bust and the financial crisis.
Gerardo noted that the spread between the U.S. 10-year Treasury and China’s 10-year government bond had widened to approximately 324 basis points. Washington is now spending close to $2 trillion annually on interest while Beijing borrows cheaply and continues accumulating gold.
The renewed fighting with Iran has pushed crude oil back above $100 per barrel and added another inflationary force to the economy. The next CPI report was expected to come in around 3.6% to 3.7%, while the market was assigning roughly a 73% to 74% probability to a quarter-point rate increase at the September 16 Federal Reserve meeting.
Nick remains in the no-hike camp. The market may be signaling that higher rates are necessary to contain inflation, but the political system and the federal government’s refinancing needs make a hike extremely difficult. Washington is simultaneously discussing a $5,000 “Trump dividend,” which would add more fiscal stimulus to an economy already struggling with inflation, debt and rising borrowing costs.
The dollar remains weak, with the DXY near 99 even as Treasury yields rise. That combination reflects the absence of meaningful deficit reduction and the market’s deteriorating confidence in U.S. fiscal management.
Gold fell to nearly $4,300 this week amid higher rates. Nick identified roughly $4,330 as the immediate support level. If that fails, gold could retest $4,000. He would view that as a potentially healthy correction and likely buying opportunity rather than the end of the bull market.
Central-bank buying, institutional accumulation, inflation, currency weakness and unsustainable government debt continue to support the long-term gold thesis. Volatility remains elevated, however, and investors should be prepared for $100 or even multi-hundred-dollar moves in either direction.
Gerardo continues to view $4,000 as the new floor. He expects China and other overseas buyers to keep taking advantage of weakness, as they have repeatedly during the current bull market.
Silver had fallen to approximately $63.50 after failing to hold $66. Nick characterized the short-term setup as neutral and potentially bearish unless silver can reclaim $64. The next Federal Reserve decision should provide more clarity. At the same time, persistent inflation could restore silver’s bid because it participates in both the precious-metals and industrial-commodity markets.
Market Takes — Inflation is returning, commodities are breaking out and the pullback may be a gift.
The CRB Commodity Index has broken out of a multi-year cup-and-handle formation and is trading near record highs. Nick sees that as confirmation that the commodity supercycle that began in 2020 remains intact.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 agricultural commodities, gained approximately 13% in August. Gerardo also cited a 1.9% August increase in the World Food Price Index, taking it to its highest level in nearly four years. With oil above $100, diesel at record highs and beef prices at all-time highs, he worries that the world could be moving toward a more serious food shortage or food-price crisis.
Copper recently reached record highs in both the United States and London before pulling back toward $6.50. The immediate catalyst was a report suggesting that President Trump may continue delaying a tariff decision because manufacturers are already struggling with high input costs.
Nick and Gerardo view the tariff headlines as short-term noise. The structural copper deficits remain, and the long-term chart would still be bullish even if copper corrected toward $5. Government jawboning can create violent daily moves, but it does not produce new mines or solve the underlying supply problem.
For investors who missed the late-summer rally, fall weakness may provide another chance to build positions in high-conviction gold, silver and copper companies. Nick has remained patient following a strong August and has not purchased anything during September. His only recent trade was a short-term leveraged gold-stock ETF position near the end of August.
Gerardo, meanwhile, is adding to selected precious-metals positions. He is also writing a substantial check into a new Private Placement Intel opportunity involving copper, gold and silver assets in two Tier 1 jurisdictions. He expects the company to conduct potentially game-changing exploration over the next 6 to 12 months.
Another Private Placement Intel opportunity is being finalized for the coming weeks. It involves a district-scale gold project with critical metals in a Tier 1 jurisdiction, a small market capitalization and management that Nick and Gerardo know from previous successful investments. If everything proceeds as planned, the financing will fund drilling in the coming months.
Private Placement Intel is approaching its 250-member limit, after which additional spots will only become available when an existing member leaves. See how to participate in these deals with Nick and Gerardo here.
Bizarro Banter — Washington campaigns against socialism while practicing redistribution, censorship and tribal politics.
The Republican midterm convention reportedly struggled with attendance in Dallas, while the local Grindr app crashed after delegates arrived. Gerardo used the episode to highlight the gap between the party’s “family values” messaging and the behavior of some of its members. He was careful to note that sexual orientation has nothing to do with whether someone possesses family values; his criticism was directed at hypocrisy.
That led to Sydney Sweeney’s highly sexualized campaign for the Novig sports-trading app. Gerardo praised Sweeney for consensually monetizing her beauty and questioned why critics on the left were more outraged by an adult woman’s advertising campaign than by far more consequential issues. Nick added that Sweeney, a Spokane native, had recently returned home to help distribute food following local fires.
Nick and Gerardo also revisited the Lindsay Clancy case. Both believe she must be held accountable for admitting that she killed her three children. At the same time, the case exposed severe failures in mental-health treatment, including an extraordinary number of prescriptions reportedly provided within a short period. They rejected efforts to blame her husband and criticized the online tribalism that turned the case into another ideological contest.
The political discussion then shifted to socialism and communism. Gerardo argued that the left would be far more persuasive branding itself around “compassionate capitalism” rather than democratic socialism. The right, meanwhile, is campaigning against communism while proposing $5,000 government checks and ignoring debt, inequality, veterans’ benefits and the country’s mental-health crisis.
They also discussed reports concerning alleged connections between Mitch McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, and entities associated with the Chinese Communist Party. Their broader point was that partisan warnings about foreign influence rarely extend to politically connected members of one’s own side.
Nick used Zohran Mamdani’s discounted U.S. Open tickets as an example of redistribution that does not address the underlying problem. Making a limited number of tickets cheaper for selected residents generates a political victory, but it does nothing to explain or reduce the original cost of attending the tournament.
A new Roy Cohn biography prompted another discussion of political contradiction. Cohn prosecuted alleged communists during the McCarthy era, remained closeted throughout his life, represented prominent organized-crime figures and later became an important mentor to Donald Trump.
Nick also discussed Nickel and Dimed by Barbara Ehrenreich. He appreciated the book’s examination of low-wage workers struggling with housing, healthcare, transportation and invasive employment practices. After finishing it, however, he learned that Ehrenreich had served as a co-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America. He found a contradiction between her political advocacy and the temporary nature of her experiment, during which she yearned to return to a comfortable professional life.
The hosts then turned to an FCC equal-time controversy surrounding Jimmy Kimmel’s interview with Texas candidate James Talarico. Regardless of the technical rule being invoked, both saw government threats against broadcast licenses as a dangerous step toward censorship.
Their conclusion was that Americans have more in common than political media suggests. Most people want safe communities, quality education, meaningful work, good pay, decent benefits and opportunities for their children. Civil discourse becomes easier when those shared goals form the starting point.
Finally, an AI expert’s estimate of a 10% chance that artificial intelligence could destroy humanity by the end of the decade led to a lighter ending. Nick acknowledged that the technology is becoming more capable, including its ability to search company filings, while remaining maddeningly unable to follow basic editorial instructions. His conclusion: if AI still cannot format a title correctly, he is not yet worried about it killing him.
Premium Portfolio Picks — A monster Talon hole, pending Kingsmen assays and overlooked opportunities around the Great Lakes.
Gerardo began with Kingsmen Resources (TSX-V: KNG)(OTC: KNGRF), where assays remain pending from the Saddle target. The laboratories are backed up, but results were expected within roughly two weeks.
Saddle is located well away from the mineralization already established at Las Coloradas. If the drilling returns mineralization with grades comparable to Kingsmen’s earlier results, Gerardo believes the new target could materially change the scale of the story.
The standout result of the week belonged to Talon Metals (TSX: TLO)(OTC: TLOFF). Neither Nick nor Gerardo owns the company, although Bob Bishop highlighted it at the New Orleans conference last year as one of his largest positions and a potential “next Voisey’s Bay.”
Talon reported 46.43 meters grading 13.37% nickel, 16.54% copper, 0.10% cobalt, 7.85 grams per tonne palladium, 14.49 grams per tonne platinum and 8.56 grams per tonne gold. The interval equates to 27.39% nickel equivalent or 54.78% copper equivalent.
The market rewarded the result, sending Talon shares approximately 35% higher during the session. The stock had roughly doubled from its early-August level.
Both hosts congratulated the company and its shareholders, but they remain concerned about the project’s Minnesota location. Gerardo stayed on the sidelines specifically because of permitting and political risk. The geology is exceptional; whether the deposit can be permitted and developed efficiently remains the central question.
Nick broadened the discussion to the volcanogenic massive-sulphide belt running through Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ontario. The geology does not stop at political borders, but permitting conditions can change dramatically from one jurisdiction to another.
He pointed to Highland Copper (TSX-V: HI)(OTC: HDRSF), which he does not own, after the company reportedly secured a $50 million grant from the State of Michigan. That support suggests Michigan is prepared to help advance domestic copper projects.
Nick does own GreenLight Metals (TSX-V: GRL)(OTC: GRLMF), which controls high-grade VMS projects in Wisconsin containing copper, zinc, gold, lead and other critical metals. Drilling is underway, additional results are expected and the state has a far deeper mining history than many investors realize. Wisconsin’s “Badger” identity itself originated with early lead miners.
The investment takeaway is to look beyond the deposit that has already captured the market’s attention. Comparable Great Lakes projects in jurisdictions offering a clearer path to construction may provide better risk-adjusted opportunities.
Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA)(TSX: PPTA) also announced new high-grade gold and antimony discoveries, along with a separate gold-tungsten zone at the Stibnite Project in Idaho. Nick and Gerardo visited the property more than a decade ago and recall that the number of prospective targets complicated decisions about where to place the processing infrastructure.
With construction advancing and strong federal and Export-Import Bank support, Perpetua demonstrates the value of owning a project that has a realistic path toward becoming a mine. The new discoveries reinforce the property’s remaining exploration potential.
Nick continues to see value in Gladiator Metals (TSX-V: GLAD)()OTC: GDTRF), which is conducting a large copper drill program at its Whitehorse project in the Yukon. He expects a steady flow of results around the fall conference calendar.
He also revisited MineHub Technologies (TSX-V: MHUB)(OTC: MHUBF), a company he owns in size. His buy-under price is C$0.90, while the shares have recently traded in the C$0.50 range after an uptrend broke down during late July and early August.
MineHub is now growing revenue and has expanded its customer base from a handful of users to more than 20. Growth has not been as fast as shareholders would like, but the underlying business continues to advance.
Nick investigated whether MineHub was suffering from guilt by association with Abaxx Technologies, whose shares had fallen from approximately C$72 in May to around C$18. MineHub previously received Abaxx shares through a strategic share exchange, but its June 30 management discussion and analysis indicated that it had sold the remaining position. The decline in Abaxx therefore does not directly impair MineHub’s current balance sheet.
A Jefferies-owned fund’s allegation of approximately $500 million in invoice fraud involving iron-ore trader Radiant World illustrates the problem MineHub is trying to solve. Its platform is designed to bring digitization, authentication, transparency and accountability to commodity transactions and supply chains.
Gerardo considers MineHub’s business model unusually scalable and views Abaxx as a possible long-term acquirer, although that remains speculation. At current prices, both hosts believe MineHub deserves another look.
The broader message from the premium section was patience and selectivity. Strong commodity markets do not require investors to chase every stock. Kingsmen’s pending assays, Talon’s extraordinary discovery, GreenLight’s drilling, Perpetua’s construction progress, Gladiator’s upcoming results and MineHub’s depressed valuation provide plenty of catalysts without abandoning discipline.